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Home / Business / Companies

Stock Takes: In fragile markets cash (flow) is king, but what would Matt Damon do?

Jamie Gray
By Jamie Gray
Business Reporter·NZ Herald·
16 Jun, 2022 05:00 PM6 mins to read

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Actor Matt Damon. Photo / Supplied

Actor Matt Damon. Photo / Supplied

With sharemarkets here and around the world tipping into bear territory, what do investors need to focus on now?

Mark Brown, chief investment officer at Devon Funds, says it comes down to one thing: cashflow.

Brown says this week's meltdown was not unexpected, given the way that interest rates and inflation had been going.

"And we have had really extended valuations amid concerns about global growth," he says.

"That, in and of itself, has driven share prices down."

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It's been a crazy ride for markets since the onset of Covid-19 in early 2020.

America's tech-heavy Nasdaq has been one of the worst-hit markets of late.

The Nasdaq Composite Index now sits at around 11,000 points, a huge fall from over 16,000 in late 2021, yet the index is only back to where it was in late 2020.

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Brown says much of the past gain in markets can be put down to ultra-low interest rates.

Even before the pandemic, equities markets were very strong, in part due to low rates after the global financial crisis.

"People were concerned even before Covid that the markets had had a hell of a run."

Even after this week's sell-off, America's S&P500 - at around 3700 points - is still streets ahead of pre-Covid levels.

"The market feels really tough, but all we have done in terms of the S&P500 is erase a year's worth of performance," he said.

In New Zealand's case, the S&P/NZX50 index is now only back to where it was mid-way through 2020.

"The market has come back a long way, but I would be cautious," Brown said.

"Now it's a matter of making sure that valuations stack up, making sure that the companies you invest in are not overly indebted, and have free cashflow."

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Investors needed to be prudent in this environment as a possible recession looms.

Despite the challenging outlook, going on the latest batch of company results, New Zealand corporate earnings have been quite strong and there have not been a lot of earnings downgrades.

In addition, the number of capital raisings undertaken in response to Covid has put corporate balance sheets in good shape.

Brown expects investors to focus on those companies that have pricing power - the ability to pass on costs in line with higher inflation.

"Companies that make real cash and have sustainable business models, and ones that are not overgeared.

"With that, you will weather it.

"And of course, buying stocks when they are falling is much better than when they are expensive."

Refining margins explode

As (bad) luck would have it, oil refining margins have rebounded strongly, just months after Channel Infrastructure (formerly Refining NZ) stopped refining at its Marsden Point facility.

A report carried by the BBC said oil refineries are making nearly five times as much money from refining fuel as they did year ago.

A lack of capacity to refine petrol and diesel from crude oil has helped to push fuel prices to record levels and increased profits for refinery owners, the BBC report said.

Petrol prices are at an all-time high even though the oil price remains well below record levels. Part of the increase is down to the high price of crude oil, which is currently above US$120 per barrel.

That has led to billions of pounds of extra profit for oil producers. But oil refiners - the companies which turn crude oil into diesel, petrol and other products - are seeing their profits rise substantially too.

"The refiners are printing money at the moment," Neil Crosby, senior analyst at the data firm OilX, told the broadcaster.

The decision to change Marsden Point to an import terminal was in part driven by very low margins.

Channel kicked off as a fuel import terminal on April 1, after shutting down refining operations over the previous two weeks.

Sky City upgrade

Sky City Entertainment is following the faster-than-anticipated re-opening trend, particularly in New Zealand, going on its guidance for 2022.

Following the recent relaxation of Covid-19 operating restrictions, Sky City has seen strong performance from its gaming businesses, particularly in New Zealand.

Casino operator Sky City City Entertainment is following the faster-than-anticipated re-opening trend. Photo / File
Casino operator Sky City City Entertainment is following the faster-than-anticipated re-opening trend. Photo / File

SkyCity's non-gaming businesses continue to recover, benefiting from positive domestic tourism, particularly during weekends and holidays, and the reopening of international borders.

"Subject to there being no material changes to Sky City's current operating settings before June 30, 2022, SkyCity expects Group normalised Ebitda of between $135-$140m and group normalised net profit of between $3.5-$7m," the company says.

Forsyth Barr said the new guidance implied a mid-teens upgrade to consensus normalised Ebitda, driven by a more rapid than expected recovery in gaming activity in Auckland and Hamilton following the easing of Covid restrictions.

With evidence that the reopening is well under way, a clear pathway to achieving pre-Covid levels of earnings in 2023, improved clarity around the balance sheet, and trading at a meaningful discount to the NZX50 on a price/earnings basis, the broker said Sky City offered good value.

Forsyth Barr said it had retained its "outperform" rating for Sky City.

What would Matt Damon do?

Actor Matt Damon has drawn flak online for last year's promotional video for the exchange Crypto.com after the cryptocurrency meltdown.

Cryptocurrencies have plummeted in value after crypto lender Celsius locked customers from pulling funds from its platform, citing extreme market conditions.

"History is filled with almosts — with those who almost adventured, who almost achieved," Damon says in the video.

"Then, there are others — the ones who embrace the moment and commit," he says.

The clip ends with Damon saying: "Fortune favours the brave."

But since then, the plunge "has all left a strange hush over the usually lively crypto Twitter community and the celebrities who have promoted digital assets — including Matt Damon, who likened investing to space travel in an ad for Crypto.com last year," said US newsletter DealBook in an article headlined "Crypto's loudest influencers go silent".

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