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Home / Business / Companies / Retail

Rebound in retail no guarantee of pickup

Brian Fallow
By Brian Fallow
Columnist·
18 Jan, 2008 04:00 PM2 mins to read

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KEY POINTS:

Retail spending rebounded in November but economists do not see it as heralding strong numbers for the key Christmas season.

Retail sales rose 2 per cent to $5.54 billion in November, adjusted for seasonal effects, Statistics New Zealand said.

But the rise followed a weak October, when sales
fell 0.6 per cent, and was heavily concentrated in areas where inflation is running hot.

Three-quarters of the increase in retail sales revenue was recorded at the petrol pump and supermarket checkout - two areas which featured strongly in the December quarter inflation data.

Core retail sales, which excludes the automotive sector where sales tend to "saw-tooth" around, rose 0.9 per cent in November reversing a 1 per cent decline the month before.

Statistics New Zealand's trend measure shows core retail sales growing at a steady but slow 0.1 per cent a month since the middle of last year.

First NZ Capital economist Jason Wong said that anecdotes pointed to sluggish, disappointing sales over the festive season and widespread discounting as a result.

"The data for November doesn't change our view that the outlook for consumer spending is challenging in light of a significant correction to the housing market, higher mortgage rates and slowing income growth," he said.

For the three months ended November retail sales were 1.5 per cent higher than in the three months before that.

Deutsche Bank chief economist Darren Gibbs expects that to pick up slightly to 1.7 per cent for the three months ended December, but most of the increase - 1 percentage point - to be higher prices rather than higher volumes.

Of the 24 types of store Statistics NZ breaks the sector into, 14 recorded higher sales in November, led by automotive fuels (up 9 per cent), vehicle sales (up 4.3 per cent) and supermarkets and grocery stores (up 1.6 per cent).

Of the 10 recording lower sales, the steepest drop was in furniture and floor coverings (down 5.3 per cent).

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