Market Watch: Can Trump win? Will stocks crash? Eight big picks for 2020

President Donald Trump speaks with reporters before boarding Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House, December, 2019. (AP Photo)

What's in store for financial markets in 2020?

Can this bull market roll on to new heights? Will the biggest year for politics since 2016 rattle the global economy? And which way will interest rates head?

Pie Funds chief executive Mike Taylor takes his annual look into the crystal ball and makes eight big calls for the year ahead.

1) Trump gets re-elected

"There isn't a strong candidate emerging on the Democrat side at this stage,"Taylor says. "So simply, if the economy continues to have momentum through 2020 then it is likely that Trump is in for four more years."

2) Interest rates rise as global economy recovers

Taylor doesn't expect big movements, but expect to see a rise in government bond levels, particularly for 10-year rates.

Meanwhile, central banks are likely to stay on hold, with no further cuts.

3) Dow Jones index breaches 30,000 for first time

There's enough bullish momentum in current market sentiment to carry through into 2020, Taylor says.

It's worth remembering that US markets went very close to bear territory (a drop of more than 20 per cent) late last year, he says. So while stocks there climbed to records in 2019, they have not surged as far on a year-to-date basis as the local NZX50 index.

4) UK finally gets a Brexit deal through

While this pick was made before Boris Johnson's landslide election win, the polls already pointed to good odds for a Brexit resolution in 2020.

5) Trade war is resolved before the US election

"I don't think Trump wants to go into an election with that cloud hanging over him, I think he wants to say: 'hey, look at this deal'," Taylor says.

"Even if he didn't get a victory, he'll tell everybody he won."

6) Auckland housing market has another surge

"The Auckland market has been flat for three or four years while the rest of New Zealand started to catch up a bit. I would expect that some of those region start to cool off a bit, but with a resurgence in Auckland."

Taylor says he isn't expecting 25 per cent gains or anything of that scale.

"But I could easily see a 10 per cent gain for Auckland next year."

7) No recession

"Globally, I think we've started to see the recovery of most economies in 2019 and I think that will flow through into 2020," he says. "The stimulus from lower rates is coming through, so I see no recession.".

8) Unemployment rate to keep falling in the US and NZ

New Zealand's unemployment rate hit a record low of 3.9 recent midway through 2019.

"It has crept back to 4.2 per cent but I can see that continuing to fall, possibly staying in the high threes."