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Home / Business / Companies / Energy

Contact weighs price rise as customers flee

Grant Bradley
By Grant Bradley
Deputy Editor - Business·NZ Herald·
22 Aug, 2011 05:30 PM4 mins to read

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Contact increased its online prompt payment discounts to 22 per cent at the beginning of this month. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Contact increased its online prompt payment discounts to 22 per cent at the beginning of this month. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Contact Energy says it may push up power prices this year even though it has just launched a big discounting campaign to stem the tide of domestic customers deserting the company.

Contact - which yesterday reported a 2.8 per cent dip in after-tax full-year profit - lost around 8000 customers in each of June and July after the launch of a government campaign to encourage consumers to see how much they could save by switching retailers.

The company's chief executive, Dennis Barnes, said the losses suffered were too high and the company increased its online prompt payment discounts to 22 per cent at the beginning of this month.

"Our prediction is that our loss in customer numbers will drop down to the 2000-plus level."

The promotion will put a dent in full-year residential customer revenue of about 3 per cent. Retail electricity revenue during the past year was $1.4 billion, but this includes commercial customers and the company has not disclosed residential revenue.

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About 20 per cent of Contact's 447,000 customers are on the "Online, OnTime" discount scheme and this proportion was expected to double during the current year.

Barnes said the Government's "What's My Number" campaign had resulted in up to 30 per cent of consumers checking their electricity costs and led to switching rates that were up with the highest in the world.

About 26 per cent of consumers were switching every two to three years. "It's not scary for us. We've got to be there and competitive."

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Contact had been hurt by wholesale prices forced down by high lake levels leading to cheaper hydro power.

The company does better in dry years when it can capitalise on its gas and geothermal generation but has been hit by wet conditions for the third year running. Lake levels are falling.

He did not rule out general tariff increases this year, if conditions in the cut-throat retail market allow.

"If storage levels continue to fall people get the signal that these unsustainable prices do need to rise somewhat, then maybe."

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Barnes said low wholesale prices were unsustainable to ensure new power stations will be built.

"The retail industry has for the past few years had a false sense of security about retail prices."

Fuel prices have been running at around $50 per megawatt hour (MWh) but the cost of new generation is $80 to $100MWh.

Hedge contracts between state-owned enterprises had this year been traded at $93MWh, which was an indicator of where prices should be, he said.

"We see it [price] needs to rise generally to support new generation."

Electricity demand has been stagnant because of a combination of a mild winter, the Christchurch earthquakes' effect on gas sales and continued subdued economic conditions.

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Despite that, Contact's retail sales volumes are growing, thanks mainly to new small commercial customers in the commercial time-of-use market.

Barnes said 2012 should be a better year, with the full benefit of investments in its 200MW peaking plant at Stratford and Ahuroa gas storage facility.

The peaking plant was commissioned later than expected in the past financial year.

The gas storage facility enables gas to be stored and used as required and lowers Contact's generation cost base. During the year, 5.8 petajoules of gas was injected into the Ahuroa facility, equivalent to $45 million of gas costs.

"The availability of Ahuroa gas storage and the Stratford peaker place Contact in an improved position to increase earnings, even if wet conditions were to continue to prevail in 2012."

Because the company is so weather-dependent, Barnes said it was not making financial forecasts for the current year.

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A consensus of analysts puts earnings at $520 million, although these are based on average climatic conditions.

Forsyth Barr analyst Andrew Harvey-Green said the result was not expected to be great. "It was just a matter of how bad it was."

The gas strategy meant Contact would be able to reduce the variability from future results.

"They still want dry conditions but the bottom outcomes have been reduced by having the gas storage there."

Contact shares closed up 14c at $5.16.

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