Wholesale 'swap' interest rates, which are the basis for fixed mortgage rates, have fallen 50-80 basis points in the last six weeks as concerns about the global economy and New Zealand's own economic outlook have mounted.
Financial markets are betting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut its Official Cash Rate by around 45 basis points over the next year to around 2 per cent.
The OCR is the basis for floating mortgage rates, which are advertised around 5.7 per cent, although many customers with high levels of equity and good credit records pay floating rates of around 5.2 per cent to 5.3 per cent in competitive situations.
However, bank economists are still forecasting the Reserve Bank will hold the OCR until March next year and will then increase the rate to around 4.0-4.5 per cent over the next two years.
The five-year swap rate, however, is around 2.95 per cent, suggesting many financial market players see the OCR below 3 per cent in five years time.