Liam Dann: David Hisco's departure the spark in tinder dry banking sector

Former ANZ New Zealand CEO David Hisco. Photo / NZ Herald

COMMENT:

The banking industry hasn't been this interesting since the global financial crisis.

Back then we were all talking about banks collapsing. It ended in a costly taxpayer guarantee and wasn't much fun.

No one's going broke in the current storm of news. But the winds of change are blowing, from multiple directions.

There are layers of disruption, overlapping and interacting in ways that make even the media industry seem relatively staid.

Where to start?

The big story in the spotlight this week was the unusual departure of David Hisco, the chief of New Zealand's largest bank, ANZ.

In terms of grabbing public attention, its been the spark in a tinder dry pile of banking sector issues.

That pile has been building for some time.

Let's dig in from the base - the future of finance.

Technological disruption has been worrying bankers for several years but gets real in Australia next month.

Open banking gives consumers the ability to own and store all their own financial data, enabling third parties to offer online banking services and compete with the traditional banks.

Regulators have already enabled this in the UK.

Aussie banks have to start making some customer data available for third party use from July, with increasing levels of openness demanded until its all out there by July 2021.

Banks face a wave of new competition from tech-based finance startups offering new brands and apps with lower service fees.

Then there's cryptocurrency.

Virtual money like Bitcoin has loomed as a potential threat for more than a decade.

But it has never looked like a realistic ... until this week.

News that Facebook will launch its own currency marks a major shift.

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg. The social media giant plans to launch its own currency. Photo / AP

If Facebook gets uptake on a stable virtual currency it can clip the ticket on financial transactions that had previously belonged banks.

If big retailers like Amazon and Alibaba start their own currencies - or partner with Facebook - the future of retailing could end up as a closed system of financial transactions flowing outside the reach of traditional banks.

There's some talk that it could be such a powerful disruption that governments - which quite like their monopoly on the money supply - might move to shut it down.

Facebook - already facing calls for tougher regulation - must know this.

Mark Zuckerberg and his team will be walking a fine line between grabbing bank profits and running foul of central banks.

While banks face competition from tech players that are better able to move fast and take business risks - they now find themselves under pressure from central banks to slow down and take less risk.

Wary of the next global financial crisis, regulators worldwide are pushing banks to hold more capital in reserve.

That's caused conflict between New Zealand's Reserve Bank (RBNZ) and the big Australian banks.

The RBNZ proposal to lift bank capital ratios is dividing the local business community.

Many say the Reserve Bank is going too far, being too cautious with the toughest capital ratio proposals in the world.

The banks warn we will pay for this in higher interest costs.

Others believe the risk to taxpayers from possible bank failure needs to be mitigated and bank shareholders can afford it.

Some time in the next few weeks that battle heats up again as public submissions on the process go public - likely including strongly worded objections from ANZ.

In the midst of all that, ANZ has just been censured by RBNZ for not managing its capital ratios properly under the current regime.

That has former BNZ chairman, Kerry McDonald, calling for ANZ chairman Sir John Key to resign.

Then you have the fallout ongoing from the Haynes Royal Commission in Australia. And a serious property slump in Sydney and Melbourne.

So across Australasia banks are under both commercial and political pressure to lend more cautiously.

There are fears the banks are dangerously deep in debt with the New Zealand agriculture sector.

There's enough tension there that the Government is passing a law to create a mediation service to ensure everything remains civil between bankers and farmers - as $63 billion of agricultural debt gets worked through.

The announcement of this pretty remarkable move last Monday was overshadowed by the media furore over the departure of Hisco.

Meanwhile New Zealand's own banking conduct and culture review process (jointly led by RBNZ and Financial Markets Authority) is wrapping up.

After the review was released in November banks were asked to respond. The verdict from regulators on the quality of responses is due in the next few weeks.

Financial Markets Authority chief executive Rob Everett, left, and the Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr, during after releasing the Bank Conduct and Culture Report. Photo / NZ Herald

It really is all on in banking right now.

Hisco's departure has gone off like an explosion at a highly charged political rally.

Boom.

Where did that come from? Was it a bomb? Who lit the fuse? Was it random? Did a car back-fire, a gas pipe burst?

In the immediate vacuum of information, chaos is inevitable.

So what next? Do we need a more broad-based inquiry, a Royal Commission?

I hope not.

I still think there's scope for strong leadership from bank bosses and regulators to calm all of this down.

But it needs to be proactive, open, honest and swift.

Public confidence in this sector of business is more important than any other.