Index signals slowdown

The heavy traffic index fell 0.4 per cent last month, seasonally adjusted, as it did in February.

ANZ's Truckometer is signalling some slowdown in the pace of growth in the first three months of the year.

The heavy traffic index fell 0.4 per cent last month, seasonally adjusted, as it did in February.

For the full March quarter the index, which reflects flows of trucks and other heavy vehicles on roads which have provided a good indicator of economic activity, was up 0.8 per cent on the last three months of 2014.

It suggested gross domestic product grew around 0.5 or 0.6 per cent in the March quarter, said ANZ economist Sharon Zollner.

That would be a slowdown from the December quarter's 0.8 per cent and the weakest quarterly growth since December 2013.

Moderate growth for the first six months would not be a surprise "particularly given the impact of drought on agricultural production", Zollner said. "The more important fact is that the trend in the heavy traffic index remains firmly upward."

Meanwhile, the light traffic index, a pointer to economic growth six months ahead, was flat last month but up 1.6 per cent for the quarter.

"It suggests solid momentum over the next six months," Zollner said.

"With New Zealand's economic train firmly hitched to a China locomotive, falling dairy prices and indeed wider commodity trends are becoming more of a worry in terms of what they are signalling."