A jump in net immigration last month has reinforced confidence that a turning point in the migration cycle has been passed.
The number of people arriving in New Zealand in February for at least a year exceeded the number leaving for at least a year by 1420, seasonally adjusted, StatisticsNew Zealand reported. That compares with an average monthly net inflow of less than 600 last year, though it is still well down on the average gain of more than 3000 during 2002 and 2003. The February figure is up from a net gain of 640 in January and reflects 540 more arrivals and 240 fewer departures.
ANZ National Bank economists said the three-month moving average - a measure which smooths out monthly volatility - had been rising steadily since the middle of last year.
"Fears of a massive exodus of immigrants following a huge inflow over the past four years now look overblown. A modest trajectory for migration will clearly provide a floor of support to the housing market."
The net gain of migrants for the year ended February was 8270, down from 11,130 the year before.
