Airbus tips Auckland to become aviation megacity

Airbus remains upbeat about the A380 super jumbo despite sluggish sales. Photo / Paul Estcourt

Airbus forecasts passengers through New Zealand airports will almost double to 45 million passengers annually within the next 20 years amid rapid global growth which the company says should boost tepid demand for its super jumbo.

The planemaker also says Auckland will become an aviation "megacity" joining 90 others that handle more than 10,000 long-haul passengers a day.

Representatives in Auckland yesterday said the A380 super jumbo would come into its own to meet capacity that is doubling every 15 years and will reach 15 trillion revenue passenger kilometres by 2033.

Orders for the double-decker aircraft have dried up in the last two years and it has been described as having a "mid-life crisis" in its 10th year of flying.

But Airbus director of strategic marketing and analysis Andrew Gordon said the company was confident about the plane. "From the forecasting perspective the dynamics of the market are pushing aircraft size upwards," Gordon said.

Strong economies, tourism and appetite for travel is driving growth which will result in the number of passenger aircraft serving New Zealand, Australia and Pacific Islands region growing from about 700 aircraft now to more than 1200 by 2033.

Widebody aircraft will more than double from some 280 today to over 640 by 2033.

Aviation growth in New Zealand is comparable with other mature markets such as North America and Europe and this region has the world's highest propensity to travel per capita, Airbus said in its global market forecast.

The research shows international traffic serving the New Zealand, Australia, Pacific Islands region will grow annually at 4.5 per cent in the period. Traffic to and from neighbouring developing markets will grow more quickly with flights to Asia growing at 5.1 per cent, Latin America 6.2 per cent, Africa 6.3 per cent and the Middle East 5.4 per cent. All are well above the world average of 4.7 per cent.

Travellers in New Zealand, Australia, Pacific Islands make more than three trips per capita a year - almost double that of North America. Propensity to travel here will remain the world's highest at more than four trips per capita by 2033.

By that year the number of aviation megacities will double to 91, Airbus says. Sydney and Melbourne will be joined by Auckland, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth.

These centres will account for 35 per cent of global GDP and Airbus says it will be served by high capacity aircraft such as the A380, with 95 per cent of all long haul traffic travelling to, from or through them.

Rapid growth in the aviation market in this region is illustrated by Australia where domestic traffic has increased by nearly 90 per cent in the last decade.

Globally, in the next 20 years passenger traffic will grow annually at 4.7 per cent driving a need for about 31,400 new passenger and freighter aircraft worth US$4.6 trillion ($6 trillion).

NZ growth soars

1974:
481 million available seat km
488,000 seats
8500 flights
100 routes

2015:
5 billion available seat km
2.2 million seats
19,800 flights
146 routes