After three years of dramatic decline, the sheep flock is showing signs of stabilising, says Beef and Lamb New Zealand.
Total sheep numbers rose 2.5 per cent to 33.2 million at June 30 driven by the retention of hoggets.
"While rebuilding of the flock slowly takes place after the droughts in recent years, the ewe flock is still 16.6 per cent lower than five years ago," Beef and Lamb said.
Economic service executive director Rob Davison said early indications suggested the lamb crop this spring would be down about 2.5 per cent on last year.
"With this year's lamb crop likely to be back on last year's, it is expected that the number of lambs to be available for export will be around 21.4 million, similar to the export year just ending," Davison said.
Beef and Lamb chairman Mike Petersen, speaking this week at an update of a $500,000 initiative to create a strategy for the red meat sector, said the future of the sector was strong. "Yes there are some things that need to be addressed in order to make the sector more profitable but this sector's here to stay, it's not heading for extinction," Petersen said.
"The thing that concerns me is that the negativity will become a self-fulfilling prophecy if we don't watch it and I just don't think the facts support some of the arguments that are being run today."
The sector needed a plan, Petersen said.
"Other sectors have one, the dairy industry has a plan, the horticulture sector has a plan, the aquaculture sector has a plan," he said.
"In our view there's no coincidence that we're facing challenging times at a time when the sector doesn't have a plan."
A Ministry of Agriculture report this month said farm surplus for reinvestment on sheep and beef farms fell 37 per cent to $19,300 in the 2009/10 season, while cash surplus dropped to $6900.
Total sheep numbers rose to 33.2 million at June 30. Photo / APN
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