Horticulture exports are expected to increase by 5% in the year to June 2026. Photo / Supplied
New Zealand primary sector exports look set to increase by 3% to a record $62 billion in the June 2026 year, a government report says.
The Ministry for Primary Industries said its “Situation Outlook” projection builds on this year’s record-setting $60.4b in primary sector exports.
Global economic growth in 2025 had been stronger than initially expected, but ongoing political tensions between key markets were affecting global business confidence and investment, MPI director general Ray Smith said.
He said conditions were improving for farmers and growers.
“We expect farm profitability to increase in 2025/26, driven by a strong milk price and record production and higher prices for our red meat from tight global production,” Smith said in the report.
Input costs were also easing thanks to lower interest rates.
The popularity of New Zealand apples and kiwifruit continued to surge, with good early-season growing conditions driving record production and export revenue.
Dairy export revenue was forecast to increase 1% to $27.4b in the year.
“Growing global supply is outpacing demand growth, putting downward pressure on prices, although a weaker NZ dollar is expected to support exporters to maintain good returns,” Smith said.
Strong domestic milk production, supported by supplementary feed, was expected to increase export volumes, the report said.
Weaker dairy commodity prices than last season were forecast to result in a decrease from last season’s record farmgate milk price to $9.70 per kg of milksolids (kgMS).
“Although lower, the milk price remains strong and well above the expected break-even milk price supporting farmer confidence,” Smith said.
Meat and wool export revenue is forecast to increase 7% to $13.2b in the year, following 9% growth in 2024/25.
Higher prices were being driven by tighter global beef and sheep meat supplies as well as robust demand from Europe and the US.
Better prices were also more than offsetting lower export volumes of beef, sheep meat, venison, wool, other meat, and animal co-products.
Sheep and beef farm profits were expected to increase in 2025/26 because of higher schedule prices more than offsetting a slight rise in expenditure.
Horticulture export revenue is forecast to increase 5% to $9.2b in the year to June 2026, with continued strong yields for many crops.
Kiwifruit export revenue is forecast to rise, with another good season increasing yields and continued strong prices.
Apples had favourable growing conditions for the 2025 crop, delivering an early harvest with good fruit size and quality.
Wine export revenue is forecast to bounce back, with a large harvest offsetting continued weaker prices globally and a larger share of bulk wine.
New Zealand forestry export revenue is forecast to rise 2% to $6.3b in the year to June 30, 2026.
Revenue growth is forecast to continue but at a slower pace than in 2024/25 because of subdued construction activity overseas and ongoing trade uncertainty.
“Mill closures driven by high operating costs remain a concern, while some industry consolidation continues,” MPI said.
“Uncertainty remains because of the instability of global economic recovery, potential trade barriers, and continued high input costs.”
Seafood export revenue is forecast to fall 3% to $2.1b, driven by lower export volumes and softer rock lobster prices.
Lower export volumes reflect lower aquaculture production because of lower spat availability and high temperatures impacting salmon harvest.
A rebound in aquaculture production in 2026/27 is expected to lift export revenue by increasing export volumes.
Global demand remains strong, and New Zealand’s diverse seafood portfolio and broad market access help offset shifts in trade and consumer spending.
Arable export revenue is forecast to rebound by 2% to $345 million in the year to June 30, 2026, recovering from weather-related setbacks to clover seed harvests and reduced ryegrass exports in 2024/25.
The food and fibre sectors now account for 83% of all New Zealand goods exports.
Jamie Gray is an Auckland-based journalist, covering the financial markets, the primary sector and energy. He joined the Herald in 2011.