Can Donald Trump impose tariffs without Congress? His proposals explained

President-elect Donald Trump has promised to enact new tariffs on all imported goods from China, Mexico and Canada. Photo / Getty Images

President-elect Donald Trump promised on Tuesday to enact new tariffs on all imported goods from China, Mexico and Canada - America’s three largest trading partners. The incoming President said the moves would come on Inauguration Day through executive order, cementing a longtime campaign promise that threatens to roil global trade and raise prices on American consumers.

Trump said the taxes would remain in place until “Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!”

The facts

• Trump announced tariffs of 25% on Mexican and Canadian goods. Chinese goods would face an additional 10% levy.
• Those tariffs would affect roughly US$1.5 trillion ($2.55t) worth of goods moving through North America, plus about US$600 billion in trade between the United States and China.
• It is unclear what precise effect these policies would have on Americans’ pocketbooks. But economists warn prices could go up for basics like groceries, cars and electronics.

What would the tariffs affect?

Once enacted, the tariffs would affect huge swaths of global trade.

Mexico is the United States’ top trading partner. Most goods exported to the US from Mexico last year were manufactured goods, including cars, machinery and electrical equipment. Mexico also supplied more than half of US fresh fruit imports in 2022, according to the Agriculture Department.

Canada supplies crude oil and petroleum, along with machinery and parts. The United States also imports plastics, pharmaceuticals, lumber and agricultural products.

Imports from China include electronics like phones and computers, sporting equipment, plastics and furniture.

Can Trump act unilaterally?

In his social media posts on Tuesday, Trump said he would enact the tariffs “as one of my many first Executive Orders” and that he would sign “all necessary documents” to make it happen. Legally, he could have an open door to act unilaterally. Laws passed over the past few decades give Presidents plenty of authority on tariffs, especially when it comes to protecting industries harmed by global trade. But it’s unclear whether blanket tariffs on all foreign goods would hold up.

Still, Trump has made far-reaching tariffs fundamental to his agenda since his first term, along with lower taxes, increased energy production and deregulation.

What do tariffs do to consumer prices?

Trump often says foreign nations shoulder the cost of tariffs. That’s in part because the tax is imposed when a product crosses a border, and often falls to the importer as a result.

But many economists argue that consumers pay in the end. A company feeling the strain of US tariffs might end up passing the costs down the line by raising prices. And while the specifics vary depending on the company and type of goods, there is broad concern American consumers would see prices increase from a widespread tariff regime on top of lingering inflation.

What is going on at borders with Mexico and Canada?

Trump began his announcement by saying “thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing Crime and Drugs at levels never seen before”. But data from US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) show lower levels of illegal crossings than during the final months of his first term. Illegal crossings averaged 2 million a year during Biden’s first three years in office. But they are down significantly since the Mexican Government launched a militarised crackdown this year at the United States’ urging, arresting record numbers of travellers to the US southern border.

Illegal crossings from Canada rose to a record number for CBP during the 2024 fiscal year. But last month US agents made around 1300 arrests there - about 41 per day along the longest international boundary in the world.

Additionally, data on seizures at the border do not show fentanyl pouring through. Most fentanyl seizures occur at official border crossings, and much of the rest is confiscated by US agents at Border Patrol highway checkpoints.

What happened last time?

Trump employed tariffs frequently during his first term, targeting imports from China, Mexico, Canada and the European Union. Over that time the overall trade deficit widened, from US$792.4b in 2017 to US$901.5b in 2020, according to the Census Bureau.

Still, back then, Trump’s rhetoric and promises around tariffs didn’t always translate into specific policy. Sometimes threats spurred by immigration disputes or other economic issues never materialised or were delayed indefinitely, as happened with a final round of tariffs on Chinese goods after a partial trade deal was reached with Beijing in 2019. Other proposed tariffs were announced haphazardly and without much detail.

What about USMCA?

Some experts already argue the tariffs would violate existing trade agreements, namely the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which took effect in 2020 after Trump negotiated it. Goods moving between those three nations can cross borders duty-free. Massive tariffs implemented through executive action would sidestep that agreement.

Mexico and Canada have vowed to retaliate: Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said her country would impose its own tariffs if Trump moved forward. Mexico’s top exporters included US-based automakers General Motors and Ford Motor Company, which have built sprawling modern production facilities around the country.

In a joint statement after Trump’s posts, Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland and Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc said the relationship between the United States and Canada was “balanced and mutually beneficial”. The head of Quebec, one of Canada’s largest provinces, said the decision “poses an enormous risk” to Canada’s economy, and pressure mounted on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to cushion the impacts for the country’s workers.

- Washington Post