Donald Trump is rapidly reshaping the global order in his second term as United States President.
Since Trump resumed power in January this year, he has significantly changed the US policy environment. Already he has signed more than 200 Executive Orders issuing directives, ranging from immigration to tariffs and climate change. Given the unexpected imposition of a 15% tariff on NZ exports and pressure on this country to increase its defence budget, it’s not surprising that the Trump 2.0 agenda has not landed particularly well among New Zealand CEOs and directors.
Just 2 of the 150 respondents to the Herald’s 2025 CEOs Survey rated Trump’s performance as “very impressive” - a majority veered towards negative.
But there was also realism.
Forsyth Barr managing director Neil Paviour-Smith said Trump has assumed full autonomy. “Looking past the noise on the obvious factors that get attention, the US economy is growing and markets are at record levels, suggesting optimism in the outlook. This doesn’t mean his policies are necessarily agreeable.”
Others said Trump was very effective at advancing his own domestic and international agenda. “He’s done what he said he would do - and at pace. We don’t have to agree with his policies to be impressed with his execution and implementation,” said an exporter.
A director slammed the undermining of alliances and claimed his autocratic tendencies justify his rating as the worst President in US history.
” It’s not all bad though, equity markets continue to be buoyant, and his economic team is reasonably competent,” added another.
At a recent high-level briefing for chief executives and chairpeople held in Auckland under the Chatham House rule, attendees were advised that some significant trends will continue to shape the United States and the global landscape well beyond Trump’s time in office.
Among the major trends identified expected to outlast Trump’s presidency were the shift to industrial polices with governments actively shaping economic direction, not just relying on free markets.
The need for defence self-sufficiency with countries, including the US, focusing more on their own defence capabilities was another.
Immigration policies, balancing economic growth with environmental protection and the shift from geopolitics to geoeconomics, with US foreign policy becoming more about economic interests than ideology, also featured.
Other trends included the shift from multilateralism to bilateralism, turning the tide on “wokeism” and rolling back the regulatory state to make it easier to do business domestically.
Two potential black swans were identified: the impact if an unsustainable accumulation of government debt emerged and an overwhelming impact of advances in AI, quantum computing, and related fields.
On April 1, the President’s “Liberation Day”, New Zealand exporters were relieved to hear they would face a mere 10% tariff on their firms’ US exports.
The Trump Administration has since hiked the tariff rate to 15% with the US underlining this was because it faced a trade deficit with New Zealand.
Nearly one-third of survey respondents say the tariffs will have a direct impact on their business operations.
“Ten per cent was manageable, 15% is tougher,” said a tourism chairperson.
Said Carbon ClickCEO Dave Rouse, “The tariffs and the US geopolitical landscape have wiped out 60% of our US export business over the past six months.”
Others noted the impacts on clients and difficulties managing global supply chains in a more complex environment.
The upshot is, 24% said they were now more likely to diversify markets or increase business activities in other countries.
“We looked to diversify anyway - it’s just made a market that we saw as an opportunity tougher,” said a tourism chairperson.
But for many, the US remains a valuable market. While tariffs might limit the rate of our expansion in the US is still attractive.
Said an agribusiness boss, “It’s an economic decision, based on best-returning markets. If the US pays the price, they will still get the product.”
“We remain well diversified,” said another. “The US is an important market but, if tariffs were to increase substantially relative to others, we would re-direct our efforts.”
NZ International Business Forum CEO Felicity Roxborough said, “There is a large appetite to understand what is happening in clear, simple terms and the impact on our exporters. People knew the tariffs were going to impact us, but they didn’t know how or why.
“Companies are responding to tariffs, supply chain disruption and investment uncertainty in real time.”
Says one logistics boss, “Whether you like him or not, he is doing what he promised. This is a rarity with politicians globally today.”
Whether through scenario planning, diversifying into new markets or passing on costs to importers and consumers, these real-time adjustments are often invisible in high-level policy discussions, yet they are vital for resilience and competitiveness.
Roxburgh points out that while New Zealand benefits from a dense “elaborate spaghetti network of free trade agreements”, gaps remain.
“India and the US are the big missing pieces,” she says, noting that the Government is putting huge investment into growing the India relationship and negotiating an FTA.
“At the same time, behind-the-border barriers — non-tariff costs — hit our exporters up to $10 billion a year. It’s a huge challenge.”
Whether you like him or not, he is doing what he promised. This is a rarity with politicians globally today.
* Trump promised to restore American greatness but has instead weakened both its constitutional democracy and global leadership. At home, he has claimed powers above the law, purging investigators, overriding Congress and courts, and ruling by decree. Abroad, he has humiliated allies, echoed Kremlin propaganda, and abandoned the post-1945 commitment to defending democracies. His transactional view of alliances and reckless tariffs have damaged prosperity. For New Zealand, a small trading nation without a defence pact with Washington, this is especially troubling: If America cannot be relied on to uphold the rules-based order, our security and economic well-being are at risk. Roger Partridge, NZ Initiative.
* I remain sceptical of Trump as a person, but some of his moves have been strikingly effective. His tariffs and trade policies have forced car giants like Hyundai, Ford, and Honda,to significantly boost US manufacturing. He demanded major pharmaceutical companies cut drug prices within 60 days under threat of heavy tariffs. And he pressed European Nato members to meet their 2% of GDP defence commitments. Anne Gaze, Campus Link Foundation.
* Trump is blowing up the rules-based order, created by the United States and underwritten by the US since 1945. At home, he is dangerously undermining America’s constitutional principles. And abroad, he is undermining trust in American leadership, while catapulting the world back into the era of 1930s-style trade wars. So whatever policy successes Trump may have along the way, all this pales into insignificance against the damage he does to these pillars of American and international order. Research Institute boss.