Chief executives from Foodstuffs, Mainfreight, Mitre10 and Mercury with their hot takes at Mood of the Boardroom 2025. Video / Michael Craig
THE FACTS
New Zealand faces challenges of an ageing population, infrastructure deficits, and high government debt.
The number of people aged 65 surpassed 900,000 in 2025 and is expected to hit 1 million by 2029
The median age is also increasing, projected to reach 40 years by the early 2030s.
“If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there,” was an early lesson in my career.
Like many Western countries, New Zealand faces three big challenges: an ageing population, infrastructure deficits, and high government debt.
Policies in recent years have borrowed from thefuture to pay for the present. This means the burden of today’s spending falls on tomorrow’s taxpayers, making it harder to meet future needs.
The New Zealand Government is working hard to promote growth with measures like Golden Visas, accelerated depreciation for productivity (Investment Boost), an energy strategy, and the creation of NZ Invest.
Yet, it remains difficult to meet the public’s expectations. Some understand these challenges, but many may not because it’s not the most exciting topic.
Scott St John, chairman of ANZ Bank New Zealand and Mercury Energy.
The Government’s agenda would benefit from a longer-term plan built around a clear aspiration. A key part of this would be a comprehensive plan for New Zealand’s population - a vision for population and immigration that supports better urban and infrastructure planning. New Zealand needs a population policy.
While forecasting population growth is complicated by many external factors, it’s too important to ignore. Accurate population predictions influence nearly everything - where people live and where we build schools, roads and hospitals.
That then determines how we fund these needs - through taxes, savings and investment.
We can either take a “wait and see” approach or create a bold plan for the country we want to become.
This means having an honest conversation about immigration. There are two basic approaches – throw the doors open to almost anyone or decide to target particular groups.
Smart nations are targeting who they need. I think high-skilled and younger people are desperately needed to support our economy.
Population policy should not be just about numbers or filling jobs that are currently unfilled; rather, it should leverage New Zealand’s appeal to attract talented people.
This isn’t just about wealth - artists, teachers, doctors, nurses, scientists, actors, researchers and investors all add value. Consider the lifetime impact of a great doctor or nurse.
New Zealand’s most unique asset is its quality of life. But if we want talented people to settle here, we must also make it easier for them to buy homes and obtain residency.
The international tertiary education sector is another opportunity. Changes in the United States have made the sector more fluid, and other countries - like Singapore - are already moving to attract top academic talent.
Similarly, wealthy or investor migrants can bring industry, entrepreneurship, global connections and philanthropy to New Zealand.
The Government has introduced innovations like Golden Visas and sponsored parent visas.
The proposed US Golden Visa (with a US$5m fee), for example, has attracted strong early interest. Countries such as Portugal, Argentina, Singapore, and others have similar programmes.
Australia recently replaced its Golden Visa with the National Innovation Visa, aimed at exceptionally talented individuals. The UK, meanwhile, is still trying to balance tax policy and international appeal.
New Zealand already has a great track record of welcoming successful people who fall in love with the country, leading to tourism assets like Kauri Cliffs, Tara Iti, Te Arai, Craggy Range, Elephant Hill, Cape Kidnappers, Wharekauhau, Mahu Whenua and Matakauri. Auckland’s football club, Auckland FC, is another success story.
Philanthropy has also flourished - Auckland Art Gallery received a circa $200 million art gift from the Robertson Family. Many schools, environmental projects, and sports tournaments benefit from the contributions of foreign friends who love New Zealand.
Clearly, there are many ways to approach these challenges. It’s important, though, that we view it as a global contest. Talented people have options, and many countries are putting more effort into attracting them.
Population trends are challenging most countries - the competition for top people is real, and New Zealand needs to be competitive.
With a large land mass and a small population, New Zealand has valuable options to attract new residents and should continue exploring them.
If there are concerns about cultural change, we could set rolling percentage caps for immigrants from any single country, say, 15%. This can be controversial, but other countries do it.
For investors, we could direct investment – say, $5m or $10m - into specific infrastructure funds, linking immigration directly to benefits for New Zealanders.
Thinking about population growth in a strategic, long-term way helps external investors, especially infrastructure funders, plan for the future. New Zealand’s small size makes scale difficult, but it also allows us to be agile if we choose.
A comprehensive population policy and plan that’s based on long-term strategic thinking will make us attractive to international partners, investors and the many young Kiwis who see other countries as their future.
Scott St John is the chairman of ANZ Bank New Zealand and Mercury Energy.
