Nicola Willis accepts her low ranking as she takes questions at 'Mood of the Boardroom'.
Video / NZ Herald
THE FACTS
Political winds are challenging Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s leadership amid economic concerns and low consumer confidence.
The September Taxpayers Union-Curia poll shows 52% think the country is headed in the wrong direction.
Speculation about potential leadership contenders includes Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop, Simeon Brown, and Erica Stanford.
You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the political winds are blowing right now.
They are beginning to rustle the leadership of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon.
Last week’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, the week before‘s migration numbers, along with the regular drumbeat of industrial layoffs,all point to an economy that is in the economic intensive care ward.
Poll after poll and survey after survey reflect a widespread view that the country is drifting and that the Government has no credible plan to stop that.
The Westpac-McDermott consumer confidence measure, although it has moved up since 2023, remains well below the long-run average.
The September Taxpayers Union-Curia poll shows that 52% think the country is headed in the wrong direction compared with only 38% who thought that in January last year.
It also shows National and Labour less than 1% apart, and even more ominously for National, it shows a centre-left coalition of just Labour and the Greens within 4% of the centre-right National-Act-NZ First coalition.
That poll is important because it is from Curia, which is David Farrar’s polling company and which has polled for National since the Key years.
It is now conceivable that this could be a one-term Government.
The polling will be doing the rounds of the weekly National caucus year-group drinks’ sessions, where it will be the platform for discussions about who to blame for the situation and how it might be reversed.
Inevitably, those discussions will focus on the leadership.
This won’t be the first time this year that has happened.
There are reports that some caucus members canvassed a change in leadership earlier this year but were persuaded by a senior caucus figure to back off, on the grounds that the party could not afford the political trauma of a change.
The MPs were apparently reminded of the damage the leadership changes had done in 2020.
Instead, it seems to have been accepted that any leadership change should happen after the next election.
Very few National MPs ever bother to give any impression that they actually like the Prime Minister or even hold him in particularly high regard.
Labour’s main attack dog, Kieran McAnulty, has been alluding to this in his Wednesday debate speeches, where he likes to point out what he claims is Luxon’s lack of support within his own caucus.
He is right – and it is what makes the Prime Minister vulnerable.
The veteran Labour Party activist and former general secretary of the party, Mike Smith, who lived through the putative coup attempts against Helen Clark, developed what he called “Smith’s Laws of Politics”.
One, don’t panic; two, have a runner; three, learn to count; and four, don’t believe what you read.
Luxon might take comfort in laws two and three.
He has no obvious uncontested successor, so there is no runner with a clear majority within the caucus.
A year ago, that might have been his deputy, Finance Minister Nicola Willis, but her star appears to have faded with the economy.
She is not helped by an incessant Taxpayers’ Union campaign against her.
Then there is RMA Reform, Transport and Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop, who looked as though he might replace her as caucus favourite.
Until recently within the National caucus, it seemed a leadership vote would be between Chris Bishop (left) and Nicola Willis. Photo / Georgina Campbell
But even though he has been mentored over the years by Speaker Gerry Brownlee, he does not yet seem to have been able to capture an overwhelming wave of support from among his colleagues.
Nevertheless, until recently, it seems to have been agreed within the caucus that if it came to a leadership vote now, it would be between Willis and Bishop.
However, things appear to be changing with two more names being added to the list.
Health Minister Simeon Brown is widely admired by his colleagues for his no-nonsense ability to manage a tough portfolio.
But he is young and, perhaps more importantly, a hard social conservative in a party that knows it must win more young and female centrist votes if it is to prevail at the next election.
That leaves the rising star, Erica Stanford.
Stanford worked for Murray McCully in his East Coast Bays electorate office and then succeeded him as MP in 2017.
Education Minister Erica Stanford. Photo / RNZ, Mark Papalii
She was one of the few new Ministers in 2023 who entered the Beehive with a clear policy programme in her two portfolios of Education and Immigration.
It was obvious she had put in the legwork in both areas and has been able to implement them with only the usual griping from the teacher unions.
The caucus has been impressed with her relatively trouble-free run as a minister.
She is believed to still have the support of McCully, and that could make her a powerful contender in any leadership race.
But all of this is speculation.
Going back to Smith’s Laws, there are no apparent signs of panic within the National caucus.
Indeed, most MPs are at pains to say there is no case for a leadership change before the election.
What they probably mean is that unless things get seriously bad and the whole Government is starting to stare defeat in the face, there is no case for a leadership change.
But even then, history suggests they would proceed with caution.
Since 1957, parties have changed their leader in Government seven times and each time gone on to lose the next election.
That suggests that the caucus’ first move if the polls don’t recover will be to get Luxon to change some things.
That could mean a Cabinet reshuffle or changes in Luxon’s own staff or both.
Any reshuffle would focus on Willis as Finance Minister and would bring coalition tensions into play.
They might be enough to save her.
Otherwise, the Cabinet would get what John Key used to call a “refresh”, which could mean the departure of under-performing ministers like Mat Doocey and possibly Simon Watts, who has antagonised the farming lobby and the promotion of ministers currently outside Cabinet, like Chris Penk and James Meager.
But there are no easy answers. Smith’s Laws may save Luxon even if they don’t save National.
Richard Harman is a respected political commentator and author of the Politik newsletter.
