Ironically, despite being a product feted for its proven health benefits, mānuka honey export fever burned out in the pandemic. However, those now taking the temperature of the former international market darling think the patient is recovering.
“On balance, if you’re still in the honey industry, I’d like to say you’ve come through the tough time, and there are some positive prospects. But it’s not going to happen miraculously overnight,” says Sean Goodwin, chief executive of The Mānuka Collective, an exporter owned by Waikato’s Perry Group and Ngai Tahu.
And not without some more tough medicine like industry consolidation, he says, noting this is also being touted by Florenz, aspiring buyer of struggling listed industry flagship Comvita.
The mānuka honey sector’s fall in fortunes started in 2020 when sales dried up as Covid kept out tourists and challenged marketing efforts, while a million hives kept pumping out the same volume of antibacterial gold sweetness.
Goodwin thinks the supply/demand imbalance is probably now corrected.
“Hives were at half a million in 2014. They’re back at half a million now, having peaked at a million. That means we are probably at a more sustainable level ... a point where the amount we produce on an annual basis is around what we would be selling.
“I think we’ve worked through a large portion of the surplus of aged honey that had been sitting with us since the 2019 record season and caused prices to drop.
“It’s also meant there’s some pretty aggressive pricing out in the market, which will start to change as well.”
Total New Zealand honey exports earned US$243m (S409m) last year, 26% down on 2020, according to Corolis Research. Honey production fell 56% between 2020 and 2023.
“I think the sentiment is we’ve come through it,” says Goodwin.
“We’ve got the right structure in terms of hives and I think there will start to be some upward movement in honey pricing.
“Markets themselves are not too bad … there’s a bit of uncertainty around tariffs because the US is the largest mānuka honey market.”
Goodwin says while the new 15% US tariff on New Zealand is “another shock” for business, the health properties of mānuka honey are unique to New Zealand, so it’s not competing against other countries’ products. Australia has some mānuka bush, although not the swathes available to bees in New Zealand.
The real potential impact of the tariffs is that consumer demand will reduce if the price goes up, he says.
Meanwhile, market prospects are looking up. European FTAs are starting to pay off and the sector’s keen to tap the new trade deal with the Middle East.
“I think we’ll see benefits ... the big one from my point of view is the potential of an FTA with India.
“I really think India has huge potential, possibly to be one of our top five markets. Honey has been a part of their culture for a long time. There’s a big demographic of Indian consumers in New Zealand and in other parts of the world.”
Goodwin says the Ministry for Primary Industries is doing “a lot of good work” with the India negotiations.
As the world’s fourth-largest producer of honey, India isn’t likely to agree to a free trade deal on honey. But the ministry is understanding of the sector’s urging to make it a special case.
The industry itself is trying to learn from its gold rush mistakes when it had too many hives, too much stainless steel and wasn’t properly focused on consumers and innovation, he says.
“We’ve come through 10 years of disruption and hopefully we’re now in a more mature state.”