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Home / Business / Business Reports / Capital markets report

Capital Markets: The push to a sustainable future

By Liam Dann & Liam Dann
NZ Herald·
7 May, 2014 07:00 PM5 mins to read

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Kiwi singer Lorde. Photo / AP

Kiwi singer Lorde. Photo / AP

Brierley's replacement could have been Graeme Hart if he hadn't outgrown NZ almost as fast as the pop star Lorde, writes Herald Business Editor Liam Dann.

New Zealand's financial sector is in a sweet spot - relatively speaking. Nobody is partying like it's 1986. Or 2006 for that matter.

But if the growth - Xero excepted - hasn't been as dramatic as it might have been in booms past, then that is probably a good thing. It suggests a greater chance of sustaining a bull market.

The New Zealand market certainly feels more secure. There is the appearance of better regulation. The new regime has not yet been fully tested. There may be complicated new investment products being constructed as we speak. But the appearance of better regulation is a good start. There is an element of self-fulfilling prophecy about it.

The Financial Markets Authority has been prepared to take a proactive role in commenting on products it has concerns about. More generally the investment sector still has the lessons from the global financial crisis and the local finance company meltdown top of mind. Hopefully investors do too.

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There is still risk out there, but hopefully it is better understood and more openly recognised.

There is risk, for example, that the growing tech sector and rapid rise of tech stocks on the NZX might create a localised bubble, as investors chase the next Xero. Despite not yet making profits, Xero is a mature tech company with cash in the bank. It has a big global reputation and a wide base of sophisticated shareholders. These things put it in good shape to handle the kind of wild swings in value that might have other companies hitting the panic button.

But not everything in the local tech sector has that solid platform. Even the best-run companies in that sector are high risk until they have a proven product.

What is appropriate for venture capital is not always appropriate for the public market and timing for companies in this space will be a key issue for market watchers as the local tech sector expands.

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Investors should go in to the tech sector with their eyes wide open. The key, as with all companies seeking public money, will be the quality of information and disclosure that is available to investors.

It reassuring to think we have an FMA that is watching closely on this score. It certainly wasn't afraid to give the Government a rap on the knuckles over its Mighty River Power documents.

Meanwhile, despite the rough start, the newly listed power companies look stronger and stronger. They may take another hit if the Government changes. But that should become progressively clearer one way or another. As the market recovers from the initial shock of the Labour/Green power policy we can only hope that not too many first-time investors were spooked into selling out.

These were always long term stocks for those seeking good dividends. The NZX is well-served in this space now.

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If there is a weak spot on the NZX it is in the gap between the slow and steady dividend stocks and the higher-risk growth stocks.

If we are honest there are some good companies on the market that are underperforming for investors.

As outgoing GPG chairman Rob Campbell pointed out earlier this week, there is room in this market for a new generation of shareholder activists.

Sometimes corporate activity is the only way they are going to start to return value.

We're certainly seeing things start to stir on that front. The risk is that our market becomes vulnerable to opportunist bids from large international players.

Campbell was effectively saying we need another Ron Brierley - someone on the local scene who can drive the kind of radical change corporates sometimes need to get back on track.

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Brierley's replacement could have been Graeme Hart if he hadn't outgrown New Zealand almost as fast as the pop star Lorde.

Hart hasn't been too interested in the listed market for some years.

But he remains a player and, as his sale of Carter Holt paper assets suggests, he could be getting more active. As he divests he will also be looking for opportunities.

Perhaps he still has one big New Zealand play left in him.

Meanwhile we'll wait and watch to see if the broader economic recovery can drive better results for some of the consumer-focused stocks.

There has been no shortage of talk about the economic recovery. Local market strength has been a good indicator of the confidence that has returned.

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But, ultimately, the sustainability of the rising market will depend on that confidence flowing through to the real world economy.

We need to see wages rise and the real wealth of ordinary New Zealanders improve. Hopefully this will unfold over the coming year or so as the recovery takes hold.

We are still very much at the start of what will hopefully be a long and positive economic cycle.

Now is not the time to sit back and relax because things are looking good.

Now is the time to keep a close eye on risk, a time to assess the effectiveness of new regulation, a time to push on towards a longer and more sustainable economic cycle than this country has ever seen before.

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