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Home / Business

Brexit: Who will be nexit? The Swexits, Czexits and Frexits that could follow Britain out of the EU

Daily Mail
25 Jun, 2016 01:05 AM11 mins to read

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Britain has voted to break out of the European Union, national media declares, striking a thunderous blow against the bloc and spreading alarm through markets as sterling plummeted to a 31-year low against the dollar.

Eurosceptic parties across the continent are intensifying demands for their own referendums in the wake of the Brexit vote, as the repercussions of the political earthquake gradually become clear.

Shortly after the result was announced, Marine Le Pen, the leader of the Front National in France, called for a "Frexit" vote on Twitter, while the far-Right Dutch firebrand Geert Wilders called for a "Nexit".

In Italy the leader of the Italian anti-immigrant Northern League, Matteo Salvini, called the European Union "a cage of crazies" that is killing jobs and citizen dignity.

And there are also fears that Brexit could also trigger a Czexit, a Swexit, and a Grexit in the Czech Republic, Sweden and Greece. Even if the union holds, the political earthquake that has erupted in Britain will have far-reaching aftershocks.

All over Europe, countries are experiencing a surge in Euroscepticism that will only be emboldened by Brexit. A recent poll suggested that 36 per cent of Swedes would be in favour of "Swexit" if Britain were to leave. In May, an Ipsos Mori poll revealed that more than half of French and Italian citizens want a referendum, and the same number believed there would be a "domino effect" if Britain were to leave.

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"All over Europe people are worried about the crises we face such as migration and terrorism," Jeppe Kofod, a Danish MEP and leader of the Social Democrats in the European Parliament, told MailOnline.

"Now that the UK has left, many are starting to think that this would be the solution for them."

With the European authorities scrambling to formulate a response to the UK's earthquake decision, here is MailOnline's analysis of how Brexit contagion may affect key countries within the EU:

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Denmark

There has been a long bond between Britain and Denmark, with it openly supporting David Cameron's attempt to renegotiate Britain's deal with the EU.

Like Britain, Denmark benefits from a number of exceptions from EU rules.

The far-Right Danish People's Party (DPP) has called for the country to hold a referendum of its own following the Brexit vote. Kristian Thulesen Dahls, the leader, has demanded reforms to the EU followed by a vote on membership.

The DPP is not opposed to the EU on principle, but wants to limit the reach of the EU, preventing it from getting involved too closely with the affairs of member states.

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It holds 37 seats out of 179 in the parliament, making it the second-largest party in the country.

The close relationship between Denmark, Sweden and the UK raises the likelihood that Brexit will be followed by referendums in those two countries.

European president Martin Schultz looked under pressure following the Brexit vote. Photo / AP
European president Martin Schultz looked under pressure following the Brexit vote. Photo / AP

Sweden

Polls have consistently shown that a majority of Swedes wish to stay in the EU - yet when you considering a Europe without Britain, the results are radically different.

One recent poll by TNS Sifo suggested that 36 per cent of Swedes would vote to leave the EU if the UK opted for Brexit, with only 32 per cent wishing to remain.

The Nordic country has traditionally been one of Britain's closest EU allies, often voting the same way as the UK in the European Parliament and opting to stay out of the Euro.

Margot Wallstrom, Sweden's Foreign Minister, said she was concerned that Brexit would mean the collapse of the EU.

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"That might affect other EU member states that will say, well, if they can leave, maybe we should also have referendums, and maybe we should also leave," she told the BBC.

The rapid influx of large numbers of migrants into Sweden in particular has also prompted a resurgence of the far-Right in the country, further inflaming the EU debate.

France

When the Brexit results were announced, Marine Le Pen, the leader of the Front National, tweeted simply "victory for freedom". She then wasted no time in calling for a French referendum modelled on the British vote.

"I would vote for Brexit, even if I think that France has 1,000 more reasons to leave than the UK," she said, referring to the EU as "decaying".

Ms Le Pen has previously called for all member states to hold their own referendums.

Presidential elections are due in France in 2017, and Ms Le Pen is one of the leading candidates - though polls have suggested that she may not win.

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She has consistently argued that the EU is bad for French jobs, and blames it for supposedly allowing criminals to enter the country.

Her insistence on placing the EU on her agenda, together with her growing popularity, raises the likelihood of a Frexit referendum in the years to come.

However, recent polls have placed the number of French citizens who would vote to leave the EU at 41 per cent.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker also appeared to feel the heat. Photo / AP
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker also appeared to feel the heat. Photo / AP

Italy

Polls have revealed that 48 per cent of Italians believe they would be better off out of the EU, and would vote to leave given the opportunity.

That figure has increased from 35 per cent over the last year, suggesting that Eurosceptic momentum is building under the weight of Italy's migration crisis, poor economic performance and youth joblessness.

Earlier this month, the populist Five Star movement vowed it would demand a referendum on the Euro, which would lead to a full-scale vote on EU membership.

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This is the latest move in a long-term campaign to put the question of remaining in the Eurozone to the Italian people, as the movement believes that Europe should have two currencies, one for the wealthy northern counties and another for the poorer countries in the south.

The party is growing in popularity. Earlier this month, it won 19 out of 20 mayoral elections in the country, a major headache for prime minister Matteo Renzi.

Beppe Grillo, the party's leader, said: "The mere fact that a country like Great Britain is holding a referendum on whether to leave the EU signals the failure of the EU."

As one of the core members of the EU, an Italian referendum would be extremely damaging to the EU's integrity.

Meanwhile the leader of the Italian anti-immigrant Northern League called the European Union "a cage of crazies" that is killing jobs and citizen dignity.

Matteo Salvini, who heads the right-wing party, said today that the European Union is 'the death of our work, our dignity.'

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He says his party will push for reviewing and overhauling EU treaties dealing with the euro common currency, trade and immigration.

The League used to be a key ally of former Premier Silvio Berlusconi. But it has increasingly become more right-wing as it seeks alliances with far-right parties across Europe.

Beppe Grillo, leader of the Five Star movement, said: "The mere fact that a country like Great Britain is holding a referendum on whether to leave the EU signals the failure of the EU". Photo / AP
Beppe Grillo, leader of the Five Star movement, said: "The mere fact that a country like Great Britain is holding a referendum on whether to leave the EU signals the failure of the EU". Photo / AP

The Netherlands

A Dutch general election looms in March, and some polls have Geert Wilders, the idiosyncratic, far-Right politician, as the favourite.

Following the Brexit vote, he tweeted, "hurrah for the Brits! Now it's our turn. time for a Dutch referendum!"

For a long time, giving the Dutch a say on Europe has been high on his agenda. "As quickly as possible, the Dutch people need the opportunity to have their say about Dutch membership of the EU,' he has said. 'If I become prime minister there will be a referendum in the Netherlands... Let the Dutch people decide."

Latest polls have shown that 54 per cent of Dutch voters are in favour of a referendum on EU membership, making it likely in the next few years.

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Congratulations Britain!

Congratulations @Nigel_Farage pic.twitter.com/VH7c8cStW0

— Geert Wilders (@geertwilderspvv) June 24, 2016

Austria

This month, Austria's new chancellor, Christian Kern, said that Brexit could mean the "slow goodbye of the European idea" unless serious reform is carried out.

"Whatever the outcome of the British referendum, afterwards Europe will not be able to shy away for a few much-needed debates," he said, adding that Brexit would trigger "enormous economic upheaval and a shift in the continent's political balance".

Austria has a large Eurosceptic movement, as was demonstrated when Norbert Hofer, the far-Right populist candidate, came within a hair's breadth of winning the presidency. His party, the FPÖ, has experienced a surge in support in recent months.

Austria's new chancellor, Christian Kern has said that Brexit could mean the "slow goodbye of the European idea" unless serious reform is carried out. Photo / AP
Austria's new chancellor, Christian Kern has said that Brexit could mean the "slow goodbye of the European idea" unless serious reform is carried out. Photo / AP

Czech Replublic

The Czech prime minister, Bohuslav Sobotka, has warned that a Brexit could trigger a "Czexit".

"The consequences could really be tremendous," he told a Czech news agency in May.
"Debates about leaving the EU could be expected if this country in a few years, too, if Britain left the EU."

Parties like the Civic Democratic Party or the Czech Communist Party could gain momentum in the aftermath of Brexit, he said, leading to a return to "the Russian sphere of influence, which is against our national interests".

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Last year, a poll found that 62 per cent of Czechs would vote to leave the EU in a referendum, amid anger after Brussels forced the country to accept a number of migrants.

Greece

Economists have predicted that Greece could exit the Eurozone altogether now that the UK has voted Brexit. The economic uncertainty produced by Britain leaving the EU has the potential to seriously destabilise the Greek economy as it continues to struggle under the weight of long-term structural reforms and debt repayments, the Economist Intelligence Unit said.

The Mediterranean country is one of the most Eurosceptic countries in the EU, with polls revealing that 50 per cent of Greeks believe that the EU has not benefitted their nation.

It has a range of Eurosceptic political parties, including the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn and the far-Right ANEL, which are likely to agitate for a referendum in the wake of Brexit.

It's beginning already! We're in Greece, no cash exchange & no cash machine withdrawals for Brits. Great #brexitfail pic.twitter.com/9dG0LnhSCB

— Matt Rooney 🌈 (@mattrooney) June 24, 2016

Spain

Pro-EU feeling dominates in Spain. Despite soaring unemployment, a stalled economy and political disenfranchisement, Spanish woes have not yet given rise to a Eurosceptic party.

Spain was able to join the European Community in 1975 after the death of dictator General Franco, by which time they were desperate to join. Some have suggested that it is this sense of relief that continues to inform Spanish Europhilia.

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There are more than 760,000 Britons living in Spain. The Prime Minister was careful to reassure ex-patriots that they would not be deported overnight, but many are concerned that they will no longer enjoy the same rights as they did as EU citizens, for example in accessing public healthcare.

Poland

Brexit is seen as wholly bad for Poland, and there is huge shock amongst Poles as the implications of Brexit sink in. When Poland joined the EU in 2004, hundreds of thousands of its citizens went to live and work in Europe, 850,000 of them in the UK.

Now that Britain will leave the EU, Poles may have to face the process of applying for work visas, and many may be rejected.

Moreover, the volatility of the financial markets fuelled by Brexit has affected Poland badly. The zloty plummeted in value in its steepest dive since 2011, losing 3.8 per cent against the Euro as the market worried that trade between Britain and Poland would become more difficult.

The removal of the EU's second-largest economy from the bloc will mean less money to go round, probably meaning that Poland will get fewer handouts to construct infrastructure an roads.

Hungary

Up to 300,000 Hungarians live and work in Britain, and Brexit has caused them immediate anxiety about their future living and working arrangements.

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With this in mind, earlier this month, the Hungarian government took out a full-page advertisement in the Daily Mail urging readers to vote Remain.

At the same time, Hungary is one of the most Eurosceptic countries in Europe. Its parliament contains a majority of anti-EU parties, including the neo-Nazi party Jobbik.

Relations between Hungary and Brussels have been strained, particularly over the migration crisis, with Hungary refusing to comply with Germany's demands and take a quota of refugees.

Viktor Orban, the Prime Minister, has announced a referendum in September or October on whether to accept refugees.

The migrant question has become probably the single most fractious issue in the relationship between Hungarians and the EU, and Brexit is likely to exacerbate these frustrations.

Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban took out full page newspaper adverts to try to convince Britain to stay. Photo / AP
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban took out full page newspaper adverts to try to convince Britain to stay. Photo / AP

Ireland

As Britain's closest neighbour, pro-Europe Ireland will inevitably be caught up in the economic turmoil that will dominate at least in the short term after Brexit.

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New trade arrangements will need to be drawn up to allow Britain and Ireland to continue their close commercial cooperation.

But the foremost issue that demands consideration is the question of border controls.

The 310mile land border between Ireland and Northern Ireland will likely need to be policed when Britain leaves the EU, but the extent to which this will be enforced is far from clear.

This has serious implications for the Northern Ireland peace process, at the heart of which was the gradual easing of the border between the two territories - but also potentially for migration.

The Brexit vote will place fresh emphasis on the need of border controls, risking inflaming old rivalries and setting the peace process back.

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