A charismatic young Argentine mayor who broke from the inner circle of President Cristina Fernandez Kirchner is set to emerge from crucial elections today as a favourite to replace her.
On doctors' orders, the fiery left-wing leader will not even be watching the news as she recovers in seclusion fromskull surgery, but opinion polls indicate that her ruling Victory Front coalition will lose ground in congressional and provincial elections.
Kirchner still has two years to serve. But in the volatile world of Argentine politics, a setback at the ballot box is expected to prompt a spate of defections within the populist Peronist movement that dominates the country.
Even if she recovers from her latest health problems, the expected loss of majority control by her allies in Parliament will leave her facing a fierce battle to curtail her powers.
Sergio Massa, 41, Kirchner's former Cabinet secretary who is now mayor of the tourist city of Tigre, has emerged as the face of the opposition after a strong showing in a first round of voting in August. He goes into today's polls leading Kirchner's candidate in the race to become the next governor of Buenos Aires province.
"It will initiate the internal succession process within Peronism, and the first very visible expression of this will be lawmakers switching sides," Argentine political analyst Ignacio Fidanza said.
The elections will mark the start of the final phase of Kirchner rule that began when her late husband Nestor won the presidency in 2003.
Her popularity has sunk in line with the country's sagging economic fortunes as her free-spending policies have caused soaring inflation, stagnant growth and a slide in overseas investment.
