US intelligence reports now say that Iran halted its nuclear weapons programme in 2003. Below are the reactions of the key players.
UNITED STATES
Bush not one for turning
KEY POINTS:
President George W. Bush faced questions yesterday about whether he knew of intelligence that Iran had ended its nuclear arms programme when he warned in October that Tehran could trigger "World War III".
Bush yesterday also defended his policy saying: "Iran was dangerous, Iran is dangerous and Iran
will be dangerous if they have the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon".
One foreign-policy expert said the possibility that the US would bomb Iran "has now shrunk to nearly zero", but Bush insisted that "all options are on the table for dealing with Iran".
Bush said he was "made aware" of the new National Intelligence Estimate, which concluded that Iran halted its programme in 2003, last week. But he then said: "In August, I think it was [US intelligence chief] Mike McConnell came in and said, 'We have some new information.' He didn't tell me what the information was."
Flynt Leverett, formerly of Bush's National Security Council said: "I can't imagine that McConnell ... would tell the President about this and not tell him what the information actually said."
The difficulty for the Bush Administration now will be to persuade the public that the world needs to ratchet up the pressure on Iran. "People are relieved that World War III is on hold," said Michael Levi of the Council on Foreign Relations.
"This is a very complicated NIE that requires a lot of nuance which this Administration has typically had difficulty with," said Kenneth Pollack of the Brookings Institution.
ISRAEL
First strike tougher option
A public difference of opinion between Israel and its US ally about intelligence on Iran's nuclear capability will make it harder for the Jewish state to launch any unilateral pre-emptive strike on Iran's nuclear sites.
The National Intelligence Estimates report sent shockwaves through Israel, which is more used to having Washington endorse its regional strategic vision. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert reacted by urging that diplomatic pressure be intensified.
Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak suggested that American spies had suffered a "disconnect". He later said Israel would pursue "various options" against Iran, but did not elaborate.
The remarks fell far short of past hints that Israel could go it alone and hit Iran if it deemed diplomacy a dead end.
A retired Israeli intelligence analyst said: "This report means there will be no pre-emptive US military action against Iran in the foreseeable future. There will be no US 'green light' for Israeli strikes. It looks like a done deal."
Israel depends on the US for US$2.8 billion ($3.71 billion) in annual defence aid and backing at the United Nations.
A retired Israeli diplomat said secrecy was key. For high-risk missions like a long-range bombing run, he said, "it would be unwise to check in, even with our closest allies, ahead of time".
But Israel would not want angry allies after the event. The retired Israeli diplomat said: "You resort to arms when you feel all other options have been exhausted. This report requires that Israel, which now appears isolated and alarmist, work extra hard to build its case."
IRAN, CHINA, FRANCE, BRITAIN
Clean bill of health hailed
Iran yesterday exulted at the US intelligence report, saying it vindicated its long-standing assertion that its nuclear programme had only peaceful civilian aims.
"It's natural that we welcome it when those countries who in the past have questions and ambiguities about this case ... now amend their views realistically," Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told state radio.
"In the report they said that Iran's nuclear activity was peaceful after 2003 and I hope they say in their next report that all Iran's activity was peaceful since the beginning," top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili said after visiting Russia.
On President Bush's remarks that Iran remained a danger, Jalili responded: "Bush's remarks were not new. What is important is their official organisations admitted that Iran did not have non-peaceful activities."
The report had an immediate impact on moves under way to tighten United Nations sanctions on Tehran. World powers met last weekend in Paris to discuss further sanctions on Iran.
China, which has a UN Security Council veto and agreed only reluctantly to earlier sanctions, said the National Intelligence Estimate created new conditions. "I think we all start from the presumption that now things have changed," China's UN Ambassador Guangya Wang said.
France and Britain said international pressure must be maintained on Iran. Russian President Vladimir Putin, after talking to Bush, told Jalili he expected Tehran to open up its atomic energy programme to the UN nuclear watchdog.
- Reuters, Independent
