“Not all of that is a surprise: If you’d gone back to 2000 and asked, ‘What are going to be the jobs of the future 25 years from now?,’ healthcare would’ve been at the top of that list. But what is surprising is how strong growth has remained even as everything else slows down.”
Healthcare and social assistance now makes up about 15% of all jobs, nearly double the share it did in 1990.
The industry’s reach has grown rapidly over the past 35 years, making it the dominant force in the labour market.
That steady growth - driven in large part by an ageing population - became even more pronounced after the Covid-19 pandemic.
Like many other industries, healthcare suffered a sudden loss of jobs early in the pandemic as clinics and nursing homes closed and elective procedures were put on hold.
But since then, hiring has picked up rapidly, especially in “mid-level” positions such as physician assistants and nurse practitioners, according to Neale Mahoney, an economics professor at Stanford University.
More than one in six Americans is now 65 or older, an age group that spends an outsize amount on medical care.
The country’s first baby boomers are beginning to turn 80 - and will continue doing so, doubling the number of Americans over 80 by 2045, according to estimates from the Brookings Institution.
It isn’t just that Americans are getting older. Many - especially baby boomers - are also getting wealthier, thanks to fast-rising home values and stock prices.
That’s led to rising demand for cosmetic procedures and other nice-to-haves, helping drive growth and hiring across the industry.
“A lot of healthcare spending is directly connected to wealth,” Ullrich said.
“Baby boomers are spending on hospital stays, ambulance rides and long-term care. But they’re also springing for full-body scans, plastic surgery and expensive dental care.”
Notably, the number of home healthcare jobs is up by roughly 20% since January 2020, reflecting Americans’ growing desire to age at home.
By comparison, overall healthcare hiring has increased 11.7% in the same period, while the broader job market has grown by 4.3%.
Brandon Rees, 44, graduated from nursing school in June - and already had a job lined up at a heart institute.
She makes US$34 ($56) an hour as a critical care nurse in Fort Wayne, Indiana, and says she’s much happier than she was in her previous career as a software developer.
“I always kind of had it in the back of my head that this is something I’d want to do, and I absolutely love my job,” she said.
“Plus, there’s pretty unlimited earning potential: I can always pick up extra shifts.”
That burst of demand has led to higher pay across the industry.
Healthcare wages grew by 1.3% in 2025, after adjusting for inflation, more than double the overall rate of 0.5% for all jobs, according to analysis by Mahoney and Caleb Brobst at Stanford.
Many jobs in healthcare require specialised training and certifications, leaving employers with a limited pool of candidates.
Job postings for personal care and home health aides, physicians and physical therapists are outpacing most other industries, according to Ullrich of Indeed. And, she noted, nurses are still receiving outsize signing bonuses, in contrast with the rest of the labour force.
“Demand is high but the supply of workers is constrained,” Ullrich said. “That’s why healthcare wage growth has remained so strong.”
Bryan Samuelson, 38, a registered nurse at a hospital in Portland, Oregon, is making more than double what he was as a software test engineer for.
There were other reasons he wanted to switch careers: The tech industry felt shaky, with constant layoffs, and he felt like he’d hit a ceiling without further coursework.
“There was just no stability in that industry,” he said. “Going back to school for nursing ended up being the best thing I ever did - there is so much versatility in healthcare.”
While it is clear that healthcare jobs are carrying much of the US labour market’s gains, economists say it’s less clear how long this lasts or what happens next.
The Trump Administration’s hardline immigration policies are making it tougher for some foreign doctors, home health aides and others to work in the US, which could further cut into the supply of available workers.
Recent nurses strikes across the country also underscore the need for safer staffing levels and other workplace protections across the industry.
In addition, recent cuts to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act could have a chilling effect on demand, especially in rural areas and small towns.
There could also be a shift in the types of care people seek - with more Americans relying on emergency rooms instead of traditional clinics, if their insurance coverage lapses, for example.
Still, economists say it’s likely that healthcare workers will remain highly coveted, even if other parts of the economy begin slowing.
“We’re likely to see some acute labour shortages in healthcare, especially as immigration falls to zero,” said Sam Kuhn, an economist at the recruitment software company Appcast.
“But is demand for healthcare workers going to continue? I would say yes.”
- Nick Mourtoupalas contributed to this report.
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