French presidential candidates Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. Photos / AP
French presidential candidates Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. Photos / AP
In 2008, "Barack Obama" wasn't an obvious answer to "who comes after George W. Bush?"
A young, black, junior senator with the middle name of Hussein following the man who invaded Iraq.
These days the US Democrats are faced with the long-term question of "who do we look for totake on Donald Trump?"
Go for like with like? Draft in a celebrity or a former comedian? Go back to low-key, sombre and serious? Get a safe party grandee next time or go for youth?
There is large-scale activist enthusiasm at the grassroots as evidenced by regular anti-trump protests and fundraising to Democrat politicians. And Trump is historically unpopular.
But the fallout from the 2016 Clinton/Sanders skirmishes is still, exhaustingly, hanging around the party. Democratic divisions are feeding additional questions: Just how progressive or populist should a future nominee be? How left do we go?
Across the pond in the UK, one-party government is, in effect, the immediate future.
Labour is battling the ruling Conservatives from the left of centre and the Tories are double their main opponents in the opinion polls. The leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, unpopular with many of his own MPs, is a focus of Labour's perceived weakness.
After a year in which populism and the rancorous American election dominated, there's much uncertainty about what lies ahead and what types of leaders will emerge.
In Washington, Obama's measured tones and statements have been replaced by Trump's word sprays. Governing conventions have been trampled, institutions undermined. It's Steve Bannon's co-opted rage against the machine. Negativity is a political constant.
The parliamentary elections in the Netherlands in March saw the first significant check on the populist movement in Europe.
Yesterday's French election, and the achievement of Emmanuel Macron in making the runoff as the heavy favourite, is more significant still.
Macron, with only a year-old movement behind him, has significant problems ahead should he beat the National front's Marine Le Pen, particularly with legislative elections in June and having to deal with other parties.
But he's a sudden reminder that a non-populist, mainstream leader can still be attractive to voters in this period where the centre seems unstable and huge radical change such as Brexit is reality rather than a far-right dream.
Macron's optimism about Europe and support for political openness is more in the Obama and Justin Trudeau vein, than the recent fiery flailing on the far-right and far-left of Trump, Nigel Farage, Le Pen, Bernie Sanders, Jean-Luc Melanchon and others that we've become used to.
Obama was always a political moderate and some members of his wide coalition peeled off to Trump last November.
Macron, 39, did slightly better in the end than the polls predicted, winning 24 per cent and 8.6 million votes to Le Pen's 21.3 per cent and 7.6 million. Turnout was 78 per cent.
A montage of French national newspaper front pages. Photo / AP
He was only the third preference with 18 per cent among 18 to 24 year olds behind the far-left Melanchon (30 per cent) and Le Pen (21 per cent).
France's political class has largely rallied around Macron for the runoff on May 07 and polls show him with an about 60 to 40 per cent chance of winning the presidency.
A former investment banker, Macron came out of nowhere. He entered politics three years ago, becoming economy minister in President Francois Hollande's unpopular Government and then launching his own political movement.
The ministerial experience hasn't hampered his progress. Being largely fresh-faced, mostly baggage-free and politically independent of the traditional parties in this presidential race was probably crucial.
Trump and Sanders used independence and outsider status to their advantage last year. Baggage tripped up Francois Fillon and Hillary Clinton.
Being politically independent can mean being able to pix 'n' mix policies without ideological party restraints - much as millions of voters prefer not to become tied-up traditional party members.
Washington Post reporter Rick Noack noted that, like Europe's most successful politician, Macron has an ability to be fluid. "Like German Chancellor Merkel, Macron has distinguished himself with a mixture of pragmatism and a refusal to take a clear stance on certain issues. Like Merkel, Macron has taken a strong stand in favour of immigration and the European Union, however."
