I've been worrying about this for the past six months. But it is worth noting that this dog has not barked. So far there really hasn't been a major foreign policy crisis.
Oh, sure, North Korea has been North Korea. That is also the area of policy where the Trump Administration has been the most conventional. The Qatar situation has been handled very poorly, but - with sincere apologies to the Qataris - this does not yet rise to the level of major foreign policy crisis.
Do not get me wrong. The Trump Administration has created a lot of its own crises, but the truth is that it has not had to handle any crisis instigated by a foreign adversary.
I am beginning to wonder if this is intentional.
This column falls under the category of "ideas that I am not even sure I totally buy but are worth pondering". It certainly seems that adversaries should be eager to trigger a crisis when the US is in as much turmoil as it is right now.
But there is another way to think about this. If the US is busy tearing itself apart and weakening its long-term foundations of power, why strike now when striking later improves the odds? With every passing day, the hegemon manages to self-destruct just a little bit more. With this dynamic, patience is a virtue.
For US adversaries, triggering a foreign policy crisis risks doing the one thing that the Trump Administration has abjectly failed to do in its first six months: rally Americans around the flag.
The US retains formidable resources. The last thing any rival wants is to renew America's focus and purpose. Doing nothing is easier. If the US continues on its current trajectory, then a future conflict looks far more promising than a current conflict.
To be sure, an enervated US will not encourage all foreign actors to not start a crisis. Smaller, more threatened actors such as Isis (Islamic State), al-Qaeda or North Korea couldn't care less about America's internal divisions. And neither natural disasters nor asset markets will be deterred by the current dysfunction of the executive branch. A crisis could be instigated any day now.
For great or middle powers, however, the calculus might be different. There is no evidence that the Trump Administration is getting its act together. Indeed, Trump's disenchantment with his Secretary of State, National Security Adviser and Attorney-General suggests even more discord to come. An American rival in world politics who has a decent shadow of the future might look at what Trump is doing and prefer acting later to acting now. Let the chaos muppet continue to wreak his carnage.
If you are a foreign actor looking to take advantage of the US, you will want to take action to aggressively advance your interests at some point. But maybe not right now. Why start a fight with someone who is too preoccupied with punching themselves?
- Drezner is a professor of international politics at Tufts University.
