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Home / World

Why Donald Trump is already celebrating as the midterms approach

By Emma Reynolds
news.com.au·
24 Oct, 2018 04:00 PM6 mins to read

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U.S. President Donald Trump. Photo / AP

U.S. President Donald Trump. Photo / AP

Donald Trump may be facing some challenges right now — from the thousands of people heading to the US southern border to the nightmarish Saudi question — but the US President is feeling upbeat about the future.

The "caravan" of migrants walking through Mexico towards the States may prove a headache for police and military, but the optics play right into Mr Trump's hands.

The vision of a flood of people descending upon the US crystallises many voters' fears about immigration. And the President is already leveraging the issue as he campaigns for Republican candidates in the midterms, suggesting the Democrats may be behind the caravan, using the caravan to push their agenda.

"Today's Democrat Party would rather protect criminal aliens than AMERICAN CITIZENS," he tweeted on Monday night, after a rally with Senator Ted Cruz in Houston, Texas.

TRUMP AT FULL-THROTTLE

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Mr Trump is capitalising on this moment to present the story to his advantage, parading the caravan as a Democrat ploy to gain support for their immigration stance.

"I think a lot of Americans are sceptical about this," James Campbell, political science professor at the State University of New York, told news.com.au. "A lot of Americans want secure borders, people to be orderly and comply with immigration laws.

Thousands gather at the rally for Republican Senator Cruz. Photo / AP
Thousands gather at the rally for Republican Senator Cruz. Photo / AP

"It seems organised to the point where some might regard it as an orchestrated attempt to push the issue."

But he warned: "If it spirals out of control, if there's violence, it will hurt Republicans, and certainly add to the polarisation."

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The White House says Leftist groups are behind the caravan, and Mr Trump has told voters to "blame the Democrats" for the migrant surge, "for not giving us the votes to change our pathetic immigration laws".

He has repeatedly claimed some of the migrants are "hardened criminals" and "unknown Middle Easterners" despite reports stating the group is solely formed of Central Americans.

The President told reporters on Tuesday he regularly spoke to Border Patrol.

"Over the course of a number of years, they've intercepted many people from the Middle East," he said. "They've intercepted ISIS, they've intercepted all sorts of people, they've intercepted good ones and bad ones, they've intercepted wonderful people from the Middle East and they've intercepted bad ones.

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"They've intercepted wonderful people from South America and from other parts further south … but among the people they've intercepted, very recently, are people from the Middle East.

"It's not even saying bad or good, but some real bad ones."

And the bad ones "could very well be in the caravan".

Today’s Democrat Party would rather protect criminal aliens than AMERICAN CITIZENS - which is why the Democrats must be voted OUT of OFFICE! #JobsNotMobs https://t.co/0pWiwCq4MH pic.twitter.com/axUEOzBAsZ

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 23, 2018

pic.twitter.com/6R85sd4LLD

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 23, 2018

THE BLUE WAVE

Mr Trump used Monday's night's rally to explicitly identify himself as a "nationalist" for the first time.

"You know what a globalist is, right?" he asked the crowd, drawing boos. "A globalist is a person that wants the globe to do well — frankly, not caring about our country so much. And you know what? We can't have that.

"You know, they have a word — it sort of became old-fashioned. It's called a nationalist … We're not supposed to use that word. You know what I am? I'm a nationalist. OK? I'm a nationalist."

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The queue for the rally formed more than a day in advance, with thousands turning out to support the President and his old foe Mr Cruz.

"You know, we had our little difficulties," Mr Trump told the crowd. "It got ugly … But nobody has helped me more."

He called Mr Cruz a "really good friend", informing reporters he had changed his former rival's nickname from "Lyin' Ted" to "Beautiful Ted".

At a rally in Nevada this weekend, the President told the crowd that Californians were rioting to "get out of their sanctuary cities" — where officials don't co-operate to deport undocumented immigrants — despite no evidence of any such riots.

This is Mr Trump's forte. Pithy, headline-friendly sound bites, boundless energy and constant self-promotion. He has never really stopped campaigning and now he is going full-throttle, with the midterms just a fortnight away.

The President has already raised more than $100 million for his 2020 campaign — where many of his predecessors had no funds at this stage in their tenure — and views the midterms as a prologue to that battle.

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Commentators have predicted a "blue wave" of Democrat votes, fuelled by anger with Mr Trump over his anti-immigration stance, wild rhetoric on minority groups and treatment of women.

But many Americans support Mr Trump's hardline immigration views and thought Brett Kavanaugh was unfairly treated. Even voters who don't like the President's brusque style are often buoyed by a strong economy, his support for blue-collar jobs and tax cuts.

Protesters chant outside of a rally, waving signs reading 'Make America Think Again'. Photo / AP
Protesters chant outside of a rally, waving signs reading 'Make America Think Again'. Photo / AP

What's more, they do not have to vote for the real estate mogul in these elections. They are voting for a local Democratic or Republican member of Congress — and some GOP candidates have cannily distanced themselves from the President's extreme behaviour.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of 100 Senate seats are up for grabs on November 6.

The Republicans currently have a 23-seat majority in the House, and the Democrats are forecast to pick up 44 — "realistically anywhere from the mid-30s to the late 40s," according to Prof Campbell.

That would still mean the Democrats gain control of the House, but many of the races are uncomfortably tight, and the Republicans could significantly reduce their losses or even retain the majority.

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"It's helpful for the Republicans to focus on the (migrants)," Prof Campbell said. "I think Americans are more sympathetic with the idea of being able to control our own borders."

'MAKE AMERICA THINK AGAIN'

The fight is coming down to the wire, with huge energy on show at Trump rallies and the Democrats going all out to take back the power in Congress.

Protesters held up "Make America Think Again" signs outside the Houston rally on Monday night, while Barack Obama appeared at a rally in Nevada.

If the Democrats manage to take control of the House, they will be able to stop Mr Trump's policies going through.

"I would expect the gridlock to stop legislation and the big question is whether the more extreme side of the Democratic caucus would push for the impeachment of the President," said Prof Campbell. "There tends to be an equilibrium. When one side gets power it goes too far and the public pulls it back. We could see that if the Democrats overreach and attempt to go after Trump."

The migrants have around 1000km to go on their long journey, and their arrival at the border could be crucial to America's future.

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"Pictures of children and families being torn apart may end up hurting Trump," Prof Campbell said. "A big part of it is how the showdown plays out."

The former reality star is on a roll and it won't be easy to stop him.

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