KEY POINTS:
Not all voters are created equal. Some are more powerful than others. That was the strangely inegalitarian message Senator Barack Obama brought to the voters of Mt Vernon, Iowa.
They had trudged through the snow-blanketed streets of their tiny college town, packing into a gymnasium, to hear Obama
appeal for their support. His appearance was billed as a "call to service", deliberately echoing cherished memories of President John F. Kennedy.
But it was his off-the-cuff remarks, not his speech, that created a stir. Turning from his notes, he spelled out how important his audience was. "No one is going to have more influence over who is going to be leader of the free world than the people of Iowa."
America's electoral system has made Iowa hugely important because it is the first to vote in the presidential nomination race. That gives the tiny Midwestern rural state a potentially decisive say in choosing the Republican and Democratic candidates and thus the future President.
Long before 37 million Californians or 23 million Texans get to vote, it will be fewer than three million Iowans who pick the candidates. They go to the polls on January 3.
The town of Newton is typical of Iowa's rural landscape and mindset.
It is a far cry from Manhattan's soaring skyscrapers or Los Angeles's sprawling suburbs. Yet those huge cities have gone largely ignored in the race to determine America's next leader. Visits are rare. Not so in Newton (population 15,000).
Last week Republican Mike Huckabee came through town. He spoke of his journey from a hard childhood in Arkansas to being the unlikely presidential frontrunner.
Bill Richardson, Democratic Governor of New Mexico, also took a swing through town. That followed the appearance of Hollywood actress Madeleine Stowe, who was opening an office for Senator John Edwards. Senator Hillary Clinton has held a rally in Newton's coffee shop. Obama spoke to a crowd of 300. Senator John McCain held a town hall meeting. Mitt Romney has visited numerous times.
In short, tiny Newton sees the sort of political action that cities like Seattle, Miami, San Francisco and Boston only dream of. Newton's citizens question candidates in intimate settings sometimes no bigger than someone's front room.
Yet Iowa's power is a product of the media age. With the growth of 24-hour politics and cable TV the concept of "momentum" or "the Big Mo" has entered the contest as political gold dust. Conventional wisdom says you win first to win big. If you do well in the chilly fields of Iowa, you go into the next contest of New Hampshire as leader of the pack. Win again and you could ride the wave all the way to the Republican or Democratic nomination.
Just look at John Kerry in 2004. Howard Dean had led the Democratic race for a year. Then Kerry won Iowa and never looked back.
Yet Iowa is far from a typical slice of America. It has all that electoral power yet is overwhelmingly white in a country where ethnic minorities are growing. It is a rural place, whereas most Americans live in cities. It is a state where, for Republicans, religious conservatives make up some 40 per cent of the vote.
That means Iowa warps the American race. If New York were voting first there is little chance Huckabee - who does not believe in evolution - would be top of the polls. If California were voting first, Clinton would not have to pander to the farm subsidies vote.
That demographic weirdness is further warped by the strange way Iowans actually vote.
They do not hold secret ballots. Instead they "caucus". This means Iowans will gather in town halls, school classrooms, living rooms and libraries. Then they debate and harangue each other, sometimes converting rivals. After minutes - or more often hours - they retreat to their corners and a count is taken, usually by show of hands. The results are then phoned in. For the Democrats it is even more complex: anyone whose candidate gets less than 15 per cent can shift their support.
The strain of caucusing and its complexity ensures a low turnout. In fact, Iowa's vast power is wielded only by about 100,000 people on each side who turn up.
That magnifies yet further the intensely personal nature of its politics, despite the fact that its decisions affect the whole world.
Local networks of support are vital. Each campaign has vast and detailed databases of its supporters. They are maintained and groomed and cajoled to vote. As one local columnist wrote, it is possible for a campaign supporter to sway a neighbour to switch their vote by offering to sweep snow out of their yard.
In Iowa such a vote change could be vitally important. It also makes the entire contest impossible to predict. Every candidate must simply deal with it. They have no choice.
- OBSERVER
