‘We’ll bring the war’: Nato will strike ‘deep inside Russia’ if Putin hits Baltics, minister says

A Russian MIG-31 fighter jet flying above the Baltic Sea last September after violating Estonian air space. Three of the jets violated Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland. Sweden and Finland scrambled rapid reaction aircraft. Photo / Swedish Air Force

Nato will launch strikes deep inside Russia if it dares to invade the Baltic states, Estonia’s Foreign Minister warned, as he dismissed fears Moscow could achieve a swift land-grab in the east.

In an interview with the Telegraph, Margus Tsahkna said the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania would push back any invaders, and that this would be followed by a devastating counter-attack on Russian territory.

“We’ll bring the war to Russia and we’ll have deep strikes very far into Russia. We know exactly what to do,” Tsahkna said.

“That’s why we are now speeding up our investments and developing our capabilities ... it’s why we are investing 5% of GDP on defence in our region.”

Tsahkna was referring to concerns in defence circles that Russian President Vladimir Putin is planning to invade and partly occupy a Baltic state after the end of the war in Ukraine, in a major test of Nato’s resolve.

In one recent wargame, imagined by former Nato and German Army officials, Russia invaded Lithuania and achieved most of its goals there within a few days. Narva, an Estonian town near the Russian border, has also been identified as a potential invasion target.

But Tsahkna, who was speaking on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, said such scenarios were out of date, as the Baltic states had massively increased their defence spending and were more than capable of fighting back against Russia.

“The previous plans of the past were just, ‘if Russia is coming, then Nato finally will win the war’. In that case, no Estonians will be left. So we are not interested about these kind of plans,” he said.

“This is our plan because there is no other plan. We cannot let Russia into the Baltic states and [only] then fight back.”

The Lithuania simulation, which was organised by German newspaper Die Welt, has proven hugely controversial as Russia emerged from it as the clear victor, while Nato was left paralysed with indecision.

During the simulation, the United States refused to invoke Article 5, Nato’s mutual defence treaty, owing to fears it would trigger a third world war. And Germany failed to push back invading Russian troops despite having a brigade stationed in Lithuania.

The simulation predicted that Russia would justify its invasion by manufacturing a “humanitarian crisis”, similar to its tactic of claiming the invasion of Ukraine was launched in support of oppressed Russian-speaking minorities.

During the simulation, Russian troops captured the Lithuanian city of Marijampole before seizing control of the strategically important Suwalki gap.

The wargame’s outcome irritated Baltic leaders as it largely assumed they would be incapable of fighting back against an invading force.

“Such scenarios are, frankly, insulting to frontline countries, which are too often portrayed as passive objects rather than as subjects with agency of their own,” Sven Sakkov, the Estonian ambassador to the United Kingdom, said in a recent post on X.

Gintaras Bagdonas, a retired Lithuanian colonel, told public broadcaster LRT: “What is written there is nonsense. I do not know the objectives of that war game – perhaps they are overly political, intended to show a threat or to educate their own public, German or other European citizens."

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