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Home / World

Veteran names herald change in diplomacy

By Paul Harris
Observer·
11 Jan, 2009 03:00 PM5 mins to read

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Barack Obama with Hillary Clinton. Photo / AP

Barack Obama with Hillary Clinton. Photo / AP

KEY POINTS:

United States President-elect Barack Obama will mark a radical break in American foreign policy this week by unveiling a team of diplomats to usher in a new era of dialogue with enemies abroad.

As Hillary Clinton prepares for Senate confirmation hearings, she will head a group of
advisers who are virtual opposites to the appointees of President George W. Bush.

While Bush favoured aggressive neoconservative ideologues, Obama has selected people whose dovish credentials seem impeccable.

They will be responsible for reversing the political unilateralism of the Bush years and opening direct negotiations with hostile states, potentially ranging from Syria to Cuba and Venezuela, and maybe including Iran and even the Islamic militant group Hamas, now fighting Israel in Gaza.

The Obama foreign policy team is focused on knowledge and experience and many of the appointments have a clear focus on the Islamic world.

Former UN ambassador Richard Holbrooke, who brokered a peace deal in the Balkans, will be appointed special adviser to Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Former Middle East negotiator Dennis Ross, who has a history of involvement in Middle East peace talks, will be special adviser on Iran and the surrounding region, showing that Obama is keen to open a diplomatic front in Tehran.

Kurt Campbell, another former Clinton official, will be an Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific, and Philip Gordon, a former member of the National Security Council, will be Assistant Secretary of State for Europe.

"These people reflect Obama's view that sees the world less from a power-projecting perspective and more from looking at problems and seeing how to solve them," said Michael Fullilove, a fellow at two independent think tanks, the Brookings Institution in Washington and the Lowy Institute in Australia.

During the Democratic primaries, Obama said he would hold direct talks with hostile states. Despite a firestorm of criticism Obama held to his position.

The list of potential enemies for America to talk to is long. First and foremost is Iran, whose nuclear ambitions are the subject of deep suspicion. Obama has held out the prospect of negotiating directly with Tehran about its programme, reversing years of open hostility from Bush's White House.

A thaw could also be likely in relations with Cuba, where a half-century-old embargo has failed to weaken the communist Government but where signs of openness are beginning to show under the new rule of Raoul Castro.

Other states in which diplomatic relations could improve include Syria, Venezuela and North Korea, plus non-state groups such as Hamas.

The new strategy is not without its critics. Last week, former US Defence Secretary William Perry warned that Obama could face an Iranian nuclear crisis within a year, with Israel seeking a military strike at Tehran.

That view has been echoed by conservative thinkers, who say a more engaged foreign policy with hostile powers will be a potentially disastrous mistake. "It will be a high-risk and extremely dangerous strategy. It would project weakness and indecision and not prevent a nuclear-armed Iran," said Nile Gardiner, a director at conservative think tank the Heritage Foundation.

But a softer American diplomacy is also likely to challenge some hostile countries whose regimes often found Bush to be an easy and useful target in venting their rage and deflecting attention from their own failings.

With the undoubted global popularity of Obama there is now less to be gained from hostility to Washington. Indeed, seeking out conflict could trigger domestic unrest in some nations.

And while many diplomats might breathe a sigh of relief at a new style of foreign policy, it is not likely to be straightforward. The fundamental fact of America's sole superpower status will remain in place, despite its economic troubles.

The country will remain a vocal backer of Israel. At the same time, Obama could expose deep splits with Europe over Afghanistan. He has repeatedly stressed the need for more Nato and US troops to be sent to Kabul, despite the war's unpopularity in Europe. If Europe refuses to bend to those demands, diplomats might find Obama ushering in a new era of cooler relations with European powers.

"He has been very forceful over the Afghanistan question, said Gardiner. "We may see an emerging transatlantic divide over Afghanistan."

THE IN-TRAY

Gaza
The Gaza conflict means Obama will take office with a big international headache. Opening talks with Hamas might help, but he will also remain a loyal ally of Israel.

Iran
Obama plans more diplomacy to combat Iran's suspected ambitions to develop a nuclear bomb. This might work, or it might be what Tehran has been waiting for to go ahead with such a project.

Afghanistan
Obama aims to send more US and Nato troops to Afghanistan to win the war and repeat the success of the surge in Iraq. But Europe may want to say no to this idea.

Climate change
Talks are scheduled for the end of the year in Copenhagen on a new treaty. Obama will want the US to reverse the position of the Bush years and take a leading role. Difficult at a time of economic crisis.

THE TOP TEAM

Hillary Clinton
Obama's one-time rival is now his public presence abroad as secretary of state. She is strong, well-known and a voice of pragmatism, not ideology.

Richard Holbrooke
The former UN ambassador, deeply involved in bringing peace to the Balkans in 1995, is set to be the new special adviser on Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Dennis Ross
Ross is a former Middle East peace negotiator who was part of numerous peace negotiations between the Israelis, Arab states and the Palestinians throughout the 1990s. He is set to be a special adviser on Iran and the Middle East.

- OBSERVER

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