Vast problems await Iraq's new coalition

The Iraqi election will produce a more legitimate government than its predecessor but it has also proved how far Iraq is divided by deep sectarian differences.

The final figures confirmed the victory of the Shiite coalition, or United Iraqi Alliance, cobbled together by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani even if it was not the clean sweep some of the Shiite party leaders may have hoped for.

"Our nightmare was a single party getting two-thirds of the vote," said the Kurdish Foreign Minister, Hoshyar Zebari. A two-thirds majority is needed to form a government.

The Kurds also came out winners with a quarter of the votes.

Of all Iraqi communities they have benefited most from the US invasion. They have retaken land from which they were evicted by Saddam Hussein and his predecessors. They are well organised and the US cannot do without them.

But electoral victory does not automatically transmute into political power in Iraq today. It is worth recalling that if any of the Shiite or Kurdish leaders tried to travel down any of the roads out of Baghdad without a large armed escort they would inevitably be murdered by Sunni insurgents.

The Sunni community very largely abstained.

It is not only that a mere 2 per cent of people voted in Anbar: in Nineveh province, of which the capital is Mosul, the turnout was only 17 per cent. Most of these voters were probably Kurds.

Optimistic forecasts that the Sunni vote might be higher than supposed turned out to be propaganda.

The 5 million Sunni Arabs can destabilise Iraq for the foreseeable future just as the 4 million Kurds did in the past.

The Iraqi List of the interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi at first did better in the campaign than was expected. He was well financed by the US and Arab states such as the UAE. He had the advantages of incumbency. He hoped to win the votes of secular Iraqis, particularly the Shiites who fear the religious parties. In the event, Allawi's 14 per cent is something of a disappointment.

The almost inevitable result of the election will be a Shiite-Kurdish coalition, though this might include Allawi as well.

There will now be intense negotiations on who gets what job.

The Shiites want to appoint the Prime Minister as a sign of their victory. The most likely candidates are Ibrahim Jaafari of Daawa or Adel Abdul-Mahdi of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI).

In return, the Kurdish leader, Jalal Talabani, would become President and a Sunni would become Speaker of the National Assembly.

The Kurds can block the introduction of Sharia law but they are also determined to institutionalise the gains they have made on the ground, particularly around Kirkuk and its oilfields.

The problems facing a new government will be immense. The old government failed to deal with the economic crisis. The shortages of fuel and electricity this winter were worse than ever. Many of the ministers have a reputation for corruption.

There is no reason to think that a new government will be any better.

SCIRI and Daawa are in the bizarre position of relying partly on Iran and partly on the US for their real power. They also know that their electoral victory owes more to Sistani's support than to their own popularity. They will dominate a new government, but it is unclear if they know how they are going to tackle Iraq's many problems.

The US now must deal with the sort of government it did not want to see elected. After the invasion it thought it could rule Iraq directly.

It delayed elections. Eventually it was forced to agree to them. Now it must co-operate with parties, some of whose leaders the US was trying to arrest 18 months ago.

The election is a step forward but it will produce a weak government with an inadequate army, battered security forces and a corrupt bureaucracy.

- INDEPENDENT