The US is preparing for potential air strikes on Iran, with military assets in place by Saturday. Photo / Getty Images
The US will be ready to begin a war on Iran by Saturday, Donald Trump has been told.
Defence officials reportedly briefed the President that the formidable build-up of American aircraft and ships would reach the necessary level for air strikes to begin by the weekend.
It follows the movement of around 50 extra fighter jets, as well as air-to-air refuelling tankers and other aircraft towards the Middle East this week.
A second aircraft carrier strike group, USS Gerald R Ford, is also expected to reach the eastern Mediterranean within days.
The combined combat jets, support aircraft and warships should allow the US to bombard Iran non-stop for weeks if Trump gives the order.
Combined with bolstered ground-based missile defences around the Middle East over the last month, these assets should also enable the US to better defend itself, its Gulf allies and Israel against an Iranian retaliation with ballistic missiles.
Speaking at the first meeting of his Board of Peace in Washington, Trump said Iran was in a “hot spot right now” and threatened its leaders with “bad things” if they did not make concessions.
“Good talks are being had. It’s proven to be, over the years, not easy to make a meaningful deal with Iran,” the US President said.
“We have to make a meaningful deal, otherwise bad things happen.”
The US President is not believed to have decided yet whether to strike Iran.
However, the two rounds of negotiations between US and Iranian representatives have made only very limited progress, and most analysts do not predict the two sides will find common ground.
It has also emerged that Trump withdrew his support for British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s Chagos handover deal because Britain had not granted permission for the US to use RAF bases to attack Iran.
The US is drawing up military plans for a strike against Tehran using Diego Garcia, the largest island on the Chagos archipelago, and RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire.
However, the bases can only be used for military operations with advanced UK approval.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump has been briefed on his military options. These include attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities – he had claimed the June B-2 raid “obliterated” the programme, but most analysts believe this not to be the case.
On top of this, the US could also try to effect regime change from the air.
This would probably involve attempts to assassinate Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, and scores of his senior allies, as well as killing the leadership of the fanatically loyal Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and damaging its command-and-control ability.
While US troops will not be deployed in Iran, analysts believe the Pentagon may be calculating that by killing and degrading enough of the country’s core leadership, it might convince less ideologically minded elements of the state to abandon the ayatollahs.
Combined with a potential resurgence of large-scale popular demonstrations, it is calculated that this might finish off the Islamic Republic, though few strategists believe this can be confidently predicted.
Sascha Bruchmann, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think tank, said: “The aim would be that the mainstream Iranian army, the Artesh, might side with the people. I want to be clear that we didn’t see that in January, but that would be the design.”
“Air strikes would likely aim to hit the regime in its communications, so it was unable to communicate and organise itself – levelling the playing field [for anti-regime forces].”
Asked how brittle the Islamic Republic was, Bruchmann said: “There’s an old adage: they always kill at the beginning and at the end.”
US outlets have reported that the USS Gerald R Ford, the largest warship in the world, and its escort, might deploy initially in the eastern Mediterranean.
From there it could protect Israel from an Iranian counter-attack, using the fast jets from the carrier to take out drones, and its accompanying destroyers to aid Israel’s formidable but not comprehensive missile defence umbrella.
The F-35s and other combat aircraft from the carrier could also be sent to attack Iran from the eastern Mediterranean, although if the carrier moved to the Arabian Sea, where USS Abraham Lincoln is currently stationed, that could improve the American sortie rate in the event of a sustained campaign.
Two Israeli defence officials told The New York Times that significant preparations were underway for a joint strike with the US, although no decision had been made about whether to carry it out. Israel has more than 200 combat aircraft at its disposal, including F-35s, F-16s and F-15s.
The attack, which would unfold over several days, would deliver a severe blow with the aim of forcing Iranian concessions at the negotiating table.
Meanwhile, Iranian naval forces this week conducted military drills in the Gulf and around the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
Separately, the Iranian and Russian navies held joint drills in the Sea of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean, which the official IRNA news agency later announced had ended.
Amid rising tensions, Donald Tusk, Poland’s Prime Minister, advised all Polish nationals to leave Iran.
“Everyone who is still in Iran must leave immediately, and under no circumstances should anyone plan to travel to that country,” he told a press conference.
He added that “the possibility of heated conflict is very real, and in a few, a dozen or several dozen hours, evacuation may no longer be an option”.
Sign up to Herald Premium Editor’s Picks, delivered straight to your inbox every Friday. Editor-in-Chief Murray Kirkness picks the week’s best features, interviews and investigations. Sign up for Herald Premium here.