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WASHINGTON - President George W Bush's nominee to be top military adviser says the United States will be in Iraq for "years not months" and a Pentagon official said the war was costing even more than expected.
Navy Adm Michael Mullen, picked as chairman of the Joint Chiefs
of Staff, warned US lawmakers unhappy with the conflict against seeking a rapid pullout from Iraq, saying it could turn the country into a "cauldron."
While prudence dictated planning for an eventual pullout, Mullen said that under one scenario it could take three to four years just to halve the 160,000 US troops now in Iraq. Many Democrats want to pull out combat troops by April.
"I do think we will be there for years, not months," Mullen told the Senate Armed Services Committee at his confirmation hearing. "But I don't see it (Iraq) as a permanent - you know, on a permanent base at this point."
Mullen, 60, now chief of naval operations, was nominated last month after the Bush administration decided against seeking a second two-year term in the job for Marine General Peter Pace. Defence Secretary Robert Gates concluded that Pace's role in the unpopular Iraq war would have led to overly contentious hearings to reconfirm him.
Based on the warm reception Mullen drew, he appeared headed for approval.
In separate testimony to the House Budget Committee, Deputy Defence Secretary Gordon England said next year's war tab will exceed the administration's existing request for US$141.7 billion ($187.50 billion). That is on top of more than US$600 billion in war checks already written for Iraq and Afghanistan, with 70 per cent going to Iraq.
Besides needing more money to build and deliver mine-resistant vehicles to repel insurgent attacks, England said Bush's request did not include next year's costs for the extra 30,000 US troops sent into combat this year.
House Budget Committee Chairman John Spratt, the South Carolina Democrat who must juggle war funding, pay for skyrocketing health and retirement benefits for the elderly and also make the budget deficit vanish, complained, "We're actually spending more and more each year" on the war.
Spratt called it an "ominous indication the costs are continuing to increase."
Mullen said Bush's troop buildup had brought more stability to Iraq but that there did not appear to be much political progress.
"Based on the ... lack of political reconciliation at the government level, obviously ... I would be concerned about whether we'd be winning or not," he said.
Ultimately "no amount of troops" could solve Iraqi political problems, Mullen acknowledged, but he said strategic decisions should wait until US Iraq Ambassador Ryan Crocker and Iraq commander Gen David Petraeus report on progress in September.
Mullen expressed concern about the "increasingly hostile" role played by Iran. He said Tehran supported the Taleban in Afghanistan and was trying to drive the United States out of Iraq but he hoped the issue could be solved diplomatically.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office provided an analysis for long-term war costs. It estimated that if troops in Iraq and Afghanistan were reduced to 75,000 over the next five years and stayed at that level through 2017, it would cost the US Treasury US$845 billion over the 10-year period.
"We don't have that sort of assumption," England said of the 75,000 troop estimate. He did not give any estimate of how large a US force would be over the next 10 years.
Whatever the costs, England recently returned from a trip to Iraq and Afghanistan saying he saw significant progress.
"Lives are starting to return to normal" in Baghdad and other regions, England said, noting that businesses were "coming to life" and religious leaders were spurning al Qaeda in Iraq. But he also acknowledged continuing "problems."
- REUTERS
