In recent months, US intelligence officials have grown increasingly concerned that Israel may choose to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities without the consent of the US.
Such a move would almost certainly scuttle the Trump Administration’s delicate nuclear negotiations and prompt an Iranian retaliation on US assets in the region.
Tehran has long said the US, as Israel’s biggest military and political supporter, would suffer consequences in the event of an Israeli strike on Iran.
The State Department recently ordered all embassies within striking distance of Iranian assets - including missions in the Middle East, Eastern Europe and Northern Africa - to convene emergency action committees and send cables back to Washington about measures to mitigate risks.
That procedure led to Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s decision today to authorise the departure of non-essential personnel in Iraq.
“We are constantly assessing the appropriate personnel posture at all our embassies,” said a State Department official who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive security matter.
“Based on our latest analysis, we decided to reduce the footprint of our mission in Iraq.”
Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has authorised the “voluntary departure” of military family members from installations across the Middle East, a defence official said.
US Central Command, the military headquarters overseeing the region, is working in close co-ordination with State Department counterparts and allies to maintain a constant state of readiness to support numerous missions at any time, the official added.
“We are watching and worried,” one senior diplomat in the region said. “We think it’s more serious than any other time in the past.”
Iran has urged the US to prioritise a negotiated solution, with its mission to the United Nations saying that “diplomacy - not militarism - is the only path forward”.
“Iran is not seeking a nuclear weapon, and US militarism only fuels instability,” the Iranian mission said on social media.
“CENTCOM’s legacy of fuelling regional instability, through arming aggressors and enabling Israeli crimes, strips it of any credibility to speak on peace or non-proliferation.”
Iran and the US are tentatively scheduled to hold a sixth round of direct talks in Oman Monday NZT between US negotiator Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, along with discussions between their technical teams.
But people familiar with the planning said today that it is possible that talks may not happen.
Trump has described the negotiations, which began in April, as heading in a positive direction and has said he told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to hold off on any military plans.
Today, Trump said he was “less confident” that Iran would agree to US demands that it completely shut down its nuclear enrichment programme.
“They seem to be delaying, and I think that’s a shame,” he said.
He has frequently said that Iran would never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon and has threatened military action if an agreement is not reached.
In a post on X, Araghchi said that Trump’s demand that Iran not develop a nuclear weapon “is actually in line with our own doctrine and could become the main foundation for a deal”.
“It is clear that an agreement that can ensure the continued peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme is within reach - and could be achieved rapidly,” he said.
Although Witkoff indicated early in the negotiations that some kind of compromise could be reached that would allow Iran to continue producing a small quantity of low-enriched uranium for civil purposes, the Administration has since rejected that possibility.
The International Atomic Energy Agency board of governors is meeting this week in Vienna, where Director-General Rafael Grossi reported yesterday that Iran has dramatically increased the amount of near-weapons-grade material it possesses.
Under the 2015 nuclear agreement signed with the Obama Administration and other world powers, Iran agreed to limit its enrichment to a low level for medical, energy and research purposes in exchange for the lifting of harsh economic sanctions.
After Trump dropped out of the agreement in 2018 during his first term in office and reimposed US sanctions, Tehran began producing and stockpiling highly enriched uranium.
The IAEA reports that Iran now has a 410kg stockpile of fuel, just a step away from what could be used in a nuclear weapon.
The agency also has concluded that Iran carried out secret nuclear-related activities more than two decades ago with undeclared nuclear material at three locations inside the country.
The IAEA for years has demanded that Iran explain those findings and received no adequate response.
European signatories to the agreement - Britain, France and Germany - have threatened to exercise “snapback” rights and reimpose their own sanctions on Iran for noncompliance.
In a contentious meeting today, Iran’s envoy to the IAEA, Reza Najafi, charged the Europeans with violating the decade-old agreement, which technically still remains in effect, claiming they failed to lift all of their own sanctions when the original deal was struck.
In a separate post today, Araghchi said that “instead of displaying remorse or a desire to facilitate diplomacy”, the Europeans were “promoting confrontation through the absurd demand that Iran must be punished for exercising its right” under the agreement “to respond to non-performance by counterparts”.
If the IAEA governors proceed with plans to vote on a resolution against Iran at the end of their week-long meeting on Saturday, Araghchi said, Iran will “react STRONGLY. Blame will lie solely and FULLY with malign actors who shatter their own relevance.”
- Susannah George in Dubai, Suzan Haidamous in Beirut, Kareem Fahim in Istanbul and Mustafa Salim in Baghdad contributed to this report.
