US prewar intelligence warned of Iraq insurgency

1.00pm

WASHINGTON - A US intelligence report before the Iraq war warned that an American invasion could lead to rogue elements fighting the new Iraqi government and US forces, sources familiar with the report said on Tuesday.

While the classified report did not call it an insurgency, it raised the possibility of guerrilla warfare in a postwar Iraq, sources said.

Intelligence reports compiled in January 2003 predicted that an American invasion would result in a divided Iraq prone to internal violence, and increased sympathy in the Islamic world for some terrorist objectives, the New York Times reported on Tuesday.


The assessments were compiled from the views of various intelligence agencies by the National Intelligence Council which reports to the CIA director.

There was a "big stack" of prewar intelligence reports that said there was a high degree of possibility of insurgency and unrest, and that "winning the peace will be harder than winning the war," one source familiar with the reports said on condition of anonymity.

Another government source dismissed the significance of prewar predictions of unrest in a postwar Iraq. "Anybody who studied Iraq for a semester could say that was possible," the source said.

Since US-led forces invaded Iraq last year, a persistent insurgency has developed, attacking American troops and Iraqis who are trying to create a new government.

"The president was very well aware of the challenges that we faced if the decision was made to go and remove Saddam Hussein from power," White House spokesman Scott McClellan said.

"He's also very well aware of the consequences of not acting to remove Saddam Hussein's regime and hold them accountable in a post-September 11th world," he said.

President Bush has downplayed a National Intelligence Estimate prepared this summer which gave three outlooks for Iraq, the worst being civil war.

Bush first said that report was "guessing," and then said he should have instead called it an estimate. Bush also said the report talked about possibilities, not probabilities.

"That NIE on Iraq was not a prediction or a forecast. The estimate deliberately did not assign probabilities to the scenarios portrayed because Iraq's future is contingent upon the actions of its leaders and the actions of the United States," a US official said on condition of anonymity.

"The estimates provided the intelligence community's best judgments about the challenges ahead," the official said. "It didn't suggest in any way shape or form that Iraq's fate is sealed."

- REUTERS

Herald Feature: Iraq