People wave Greenlandic flags as they take part in a demonstration that gathered almost a third of the city population to protest against the US President's plans to take Greenland, on January 17 in Nuuk. Photo / Alessandro Rampazzo, AFP
A Nato mission in the Arctic has become the favoured option for curbing United States President Donald Trump’s ambitions to seize Greenland.
Britain, Germany and France have held talks on launching an operation named “Arctic Sentry” to better protect the region.
British surveillance units could join European troops stationed in Greenland in the hope it would placate the US President’s concerns about the Arctic island’s security.
Similar missions have been launched by Nato in recent years, including “Baltic Sentry” aimed at protecting critical infrastructure in the Baltic, and “Eastern Sentry” in response to Russian drones crossing into the alliance’s airspace.
A so-called “Arctic Sentry” mission could serve as the blueprint for any new operation in the region.
However, Nato insiders argue that the missions in the Baltic and on the Eastern flank were formulated to tackle specific threats, which are not as clear-cut in the case of Greenland.
Sources in Berlin and Paris have signalled they are ready to commit resources to establish the mission.
The US President has repeatedly claimed that America should own Greenland to counter what he claims to be a growing threat from Russian and Chinese ships in the surrounding waters.
He has also said the island, a part of the Kingdom of Denmark, is vital to his US$175 billion project to create a Golden Dome air defence system.
With these apparent security concerns in mind, Mark Rutte, Nato’s Secretary-General, will present Trump with a “toolbox” of ideas of how European nations can better protect Greenland during a meeting at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
It is hoped at least one of the proposals will be enough for Trump to drop his ambitions to acquire the island by military might or economic coercion.
The Telegraph has explored some of the ideas floated by European allies on how to bolster Nato’s presence around Greenland and the wider Arctic.
Germany is understood to have floated the idea of sending at least 5000 troops to the island in the hope that it convinces the White House they’re serious about Arctic security.
While not impossible, this would suck vast resources away from other priorities, such as deterring a feared Russian invasion of the alliance via its eastern flank or a troop deployment to Ukraine as part of any ceasefire arrangement.
To rotate this many troops via Greenland would require about 10,000 more personnel for future deployments.
The troops would essentially serve as a “tripwire” to stall a Russian or Chinese invasion of the island.
To some Europeans, the “tripwire” would also dramatically change any risk-reward calculations being made in the White House and Pentagon for an armed takeover of Greenland.
Largely, the troops would not significantly contribute to regional security and would simply be seen as a costly public relations project aimed at reassuring Trump.
This is because the threat to Greenland is unlikely to be a ground invasion.
The idea has been quietly ruled out in the corridors of power at Nato’s headquarters in Brussels.
But that does not mean Rutte will not propose it to Trump if he sees it as an opportunity to bring an end to the mounting transatlantic row.
One option discussed by the North Atlantic Council, Nato’s political decision-making body, was for the alliance to hold exercises on Greenland.
The drills would prove to Russia, China and the US that Nato takes the island’s security seriously.
While bringing together alliance resources to simulate elements of warfare on Greenland would be costly, it is not an unprecedented concept.
Denmark is already running what is known as Operation Arctic Endurance, with about 200 Danish soldiers being moved to Nuuk as a reconnaissance force.
Britain and about 10 other European allies joined the mission by sending a handful of officers, mainly for talks on what could be done to bolster regional security.
Nato countries have a tradition of exercising in the Arctic.
The much larger Cold Response 2026 will bring together up to 25,000 troops in March to hone their Arctic war-fighting skills.
Making this an annual occurrence and featuring Greenland in the training drills is a serious consideration.
One of the most likely options is increasing aerial and naval patrols of Greenland and the wider Arctic region.
Denmark is one of the countries which operates the supersonic F-35 fighter jets.
The stealth fighters have been deployed over Greenland in recent days as part of Copenhagen’s plan to secure the island and address Trump’s concerns.
The French have contributed A330 multi-role tankers to refuel the jets as they patrol coastal areas of Greenland.
While this was a training exercise to practise long flights in harsh conditions, it could become a more permanent fixture utilising similar assets from Nato allies.
One capability that Europe has the advantage over America is ice-breaking naval vessels.
Finland is the world’s leading producer of the vessels, with 80% designed in the country and 60% being built there.
America has placed orders with one of Europe’s latest Nato members to boost its fleet of ice-breakers.
The European Union has floated using a €800 billion rearmament scheme for the bloc to build a continental ice-breaker for use in the Arctic.
These and other warships from the alliance could be deployed to the Arctic region more frequently to ward off Russian submarines and surface vessels.
The most likely scenario for a Nato mission to Greenland will focus on the intelligence aspect of security.
Trump appears obsessed with the purported presence of Russian and Chinese ships in the area.
Security experts do not agree with his assessment but do acknowledge that Russian submarines are a problem.
Greenland sits where the Arctic Ocean meets the Atlantic. Russian ships and submarines leaving the Arctic region bases to head south have to pass nearby to do so.
One of the main routes sees the Russian vessels pass through the waters between Greenland, Iceland and the United Kingdom – known as the GIUK Gap.
A second route – the Bear Gap – between Norway and Iceland has also emerged as a favoured option.
Since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his invasion of Ukraine, Nato has increased its aerial and naval patrols in the area.
Nato could increase these further to scope out where and when Russian submarines are operating in the area.
Britain is now considering deploying reconnaissance units from the Navy and RAF, which could include the Air Force’s P8 Poseidon aircraft.
The jet, made by Boeing, is built to hunt out submarines and would be key in tracking Russia’s underwater forces in the region.
Earlier this year, the US Government approved the sale of a P8 to Denmark, making it the alliance’s next operator of the aircraft.
While it is not as significant as a troop deployment, intelligence is seen as a vital way of securing the Arctic.
Information will allow Nato to reassess when it needs forces in the area and when it does not.
As it stands, the security risk is seen as minimal and would drain resources better used elsewhere.
Sources inside the alliance have hinted that a combination of increased intelligence operations and exercises are the most likely outcome for “Arctic Sentry”.
However, they do warn that talks over the scheme are far from complete and are at the earliest stages of planning.
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