President Donald Trump has exerted total authority over the Republican Party. Photo / AP
President Donald Trump has exerted total authority over the Republican Party. Photo / AP
Even in defeat, Donald Trump's grip over the Republican Party looks supreme.
The US President got about 74 million votes this election on latest counting, 10 million more than 2016 and a total unmatched by any previous Republican presidential candidate.
The Trump campaign is spending millions of dollars on legalchallenges to chase their candidate's wild claims of systematic voter fraud, and Republican HQ is full-square behind it.
Just a handful of the 53 Republican senators have congratulated Joe Biden and acknowledged his election victory, fearing the wrath of the President and his loyal supporters.
Before the election, it was clear the Republican Party had become the Trump Party. His control of its policy, its message, its spending, its inner workings was strong.
A fortnight later that is still the case. But for how long? It is a question that will help define American politics in the years to come.
There is a plausible argument to say Trump's sway remains. The 2020 election was not a total repudiation of Trumpism, even if it led to his ouster.
Should Trump run for the 2024 Republican nomination, as has been speculated, or tease a run, he will know more than 70 million people voted for him, a strong base with which to start.
Similarly, if he seeks to monetise his popularity by setting up a rival right-wing media operation to Fox News there is a vast audience of die-hard fans that could be tapped into.
But his hold on the Republican Party is not eternal. The possibility of Trump's grip loosening is perhaps a little under-counted at this point in time.
Should Donald Trump run for the 2024 Republican nomination, he will know more than 70 million people voted for him. Photo / AP
There is a tendency in politics to think what is now will always be. Take Labour in the United Kingdom. New Labour's modernisation appeared irreversible, before membership changes led to a left-wing takeover. Then the internal dominance of the Left appeared unshakeable under Jeremy Corbyn, until a drubbing by Boris Johnson in the 2019 swayed enough members to pick moderate Keir Starmer.
Consider the following. If you are a Republican who wants to become president in 2024 you will know one thing above all else must happen to be successful: stop Trump.
That is true for all the potential candidates: US Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, senators Ted Cruz, Lindsey Graham, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley. Even, if you believe the speculation, Trump's son Donald Jr.
The hopefuls may be unable to stop Trump. They may run as Trump 2.0 or Trump-light. They may seek his endorsement or frame themselves as an ally.
But fundamentally if you are a Republican who wants to be the 2024 nominee you have to make sure Trump does not get it. That means chipping away at his standing in the party.
Expect a lot of 'it is time for a new vehicle for Trumpism' and 'let's look to the future not the past' arguments in the coming years.
Secondly, there are the legal complications. Trump becomes an ordinary citizen on January 20, inauguration day, which means no more presidential legal protections.
Trump is facing investigations into his tax affairs, a defamation case around an allegation of assault - which he has always denied - and other legal headaches.
This complicates any straight road from departure of the Oval Office in 2021 and capturing of the Republican nomination in 2024.
And third, there is the impact of defeat. Trump is refusing to publicly accept his loss to Joe Biden and perhaps never will. His baseless narrative of a "stolen" election will continue.
Supporters of Donald Trump protesting against what they believe was a "rigged" election in Nevada. Photo / AP
But six months, one year, three years from now will Republican voters believe the same? Trump ridiculed Biden as a kind of semi-coherent halfwit. He has now lost to that man.
Political power is a funny thing. Trump has wielded it ruthlessly against foes inside his party over the past four years, directed fury at critics with a few taps of his thumbs.
But it can also fade with remarkable speed. Outside the White House, an electoral loser facing legal woes and loyalists who have become rivals, will Trump's grip over the Republican Party remain?
