Will it be Trump or Harris for US President? The Electoral College will be the ones to decide.
Voters are already casting ballots for local offices, state legislators, governors, every member of the US House and one-third of the US Senate as election day nears.
They are also choosing the next President, but with a twist: Americans will actually select the electors, who will, in turn, elect Kamala Harris or Donald Trump and their running mates.
Yes, there are really two elections: one in which voters cast their ballots, and a second in which the electoral votes are cast and counted. Or, in other words, the winner of the most votes nationally is not assured victory.
This is the way it has been done for more than 200 years, and it is likely to endure, even though a majority of Americans would prefer to have the winner of the most votes nationally rise to the presidency.
The Electoral College is made up of 538 elected members, one for each US senator and US representative, plus three for Washington, DC.
A presidential candidate needs to win a simple majority of them (270) to win the White House. The electors meet and cast votes for president and vice president in mid-December.
With an even total number of electors, it is possible to have a tie (269-269). In that case — which happened in 1801 — the decision goes to the freshly elected House of Representatives, with each state voting as one unit. The newly elected Senate decides on the vice president, with one vote per senator.
“This is a very unique and bespoke system that I think nobody would create again today,” said Wendy Weiser, vice president for democracy at the Brennan Centre for Justice at NYU Law School.
In the summer of 1787, the delegates to the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia were deadlocked on how to select a President.
Instead of electing a President by a vote in Congress or by a popular vote of citizens — who at the time were all white, landowning men — they compromised and agreed to have electors.
The delegates believed the electors would ensure only a qualified person became President. They also believed this approach would serve as a check on the public, which might easily be swayed by misinformation, especially from foreign governments.
The electors idea boosted states in the South, where the enslaved population added to the number of assigned electoral votes. It also lifted smaller states, in that candidates could not simply collect votes in the most populous cities and states and ignore the rest of the country.
Each state’s number of electors is equal to the number of senators and representatives in its congressional delegation, so the minimum is three.
In 48 states, the winner takes all the electoral votes. In Maine and Nebraska, two electoral votes are apportioned to the winner of the popular vote, and each remaining electoral vote is awarded to the winner of the popular vote in each of the state’s congressional districts.
After a state’s electors have certified the vote in December, they send a certificate to Congress. Congress then counts and certifies the vote on January 6.
The Vice President presides over a special session as the results from each state are recorded.
State political parties choose their electors every four years in the months before election day. Some do so during their party conventions.
“When we vote, even though we don’t see their names, we’re voting for those electors,” said John Kowal, a co-author of The People’s Constitution.
The Electoral Count Reform Act, which became law in 2022, designates the governor as the one who certifies the state’s electors. The bipartisan legislation clarified how to count votes and handle disputes, making it much more difficult to submit a slate of fake electors.
The Electoral College has mostly reflected the will of the people, but twice in the past six elections, candidates have lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College and the White House.
The results don’t always align because a single voter in a big state has less influence on the Electoral College than a single voter in a small state.
The overrepresented rural states are now more Republican, so Republicans can more easily win the Electoral College without winning a majority of the national votes. That’s what happened in 2000 and 2016.
With the outcomes a foregone conclusion in solidly Democratic and Republican states, candidates end up putting much of their resources into a few competitive swing states.
The rest are overlooked, which is precisely the opposite of what the Electoral College was designed to do.
Yes, by a constitutional amendment.
Starting that process would require two-thirds approval in both the House and the Senate or a constitutional convention called by two-thirds of the state legislatures.
Three-fourths of the state legislatures or three-fourths of the state conventions would then have to ratify the amendment.
Another possible change could come through the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. That is an agreement among member states to have their electors pledge their votes to the winner of the nationwide popular vote, and not based on the results in their own state.
Seventeen states and Washington, DC, have signed on, representing a total of 209 electoral votes. But for the pact to take effect, it needs to sign up enough states to reach the winning sum of 270 electoral votes.
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.