US cold shoulder likely for Iraq war opponents

2.45pm - By RANDALL MIKKELSEN

WASHINGTON - US President George W Bush, famous for remembering slights, is unlikely to reach out to mend diplomatic ties frayed in the debate over war on Iraq, and opponents such as France and Germany could feel the sting of retribution.

US officials in recent days have said Washington is willing to repair relations. But their comments also show the Bush administration has a long memory, and is looking for opponents to show a change in attitude.

The likely result is that those who opposed the US effort in Iraq won't have a significant voice in the country's political transition, could take a back seat when a new Iraqi government hands out business such as valuable oil contracts, and may be left out of the discussion in future international crises.

"Americans have a memory like an elephant for certain things," the US ambassador to Nato-member Belgium, Stephen Brauer, said last week in suggesting Belgium's opposition to war could endanger its claim to Nato's headquarters in Brussels.

Bush has long had a reputation for being unforgiving to disloyalty or personal slights, going back to his role as an "enforcer" during the presidency of his father, George Bush.

A day after the younger Bush and Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien put off a planned May 5 meeting in Canada, citing the demands of Iraq and denying tensions over Canada's opposition to the war, the White House said the president would host "strong ally and close friend" Prime Minister John Howard of Australia at his Texas ranch May 2-3.

"That's what this administration is really good at. The president is the kind of person who values loyalty highly," said Brookings Institution security analyst Ivo Daalder. "John Howard gets his special visit at the ranch and people who haven't supported him, they get the cold shoulder."

The success of the US-led war despite the failure to win UN backing may make Washington less willing to consider such backing in future crises, Daalder said.

Vice President Dick Cheney said last week the United States was disappointed that countries including France and Germany "did everything they could to stop us."

He said the "central role" in Iraq's transition would be played not by the United Nations but by the United States and its allies in the war, led by Britain, Australia and Poland.

"They've already demonstrated their willingness to be part of an effort to deal with this problem," Cheney said. "With respect to others who didn't support the effort, perhaps time will help ... improve their outlook."

"Hopefully, should similar problems arise in the future, maybe our French and German friends will reconsider their position," he added.

Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz told the US Congress that France's opposition to an Iraq war had harmed the Nato alliance and "France is going to pay some consequences".

White House spokesman Ari Fleischer suggested a new Iraqi government may seek to reward the United States and its allies, instead of those who opposed the war, when it comes to business such as oil contracts.

"They will make their decisions about who they want to thank for helping them in their liberation," Fleischer said.

He said Bush was willing to move beyond past disputes. "The president knows that at the end of this, even our allies who differed with us share our values .... It's important that we work together."

Russia may not get a full blast of retribution, as Bush has had strong personal ties with President Vladimir Putin and the importance of keeping arms treaties and a broad international agenda on track may make Washington more conciliatory.

US national security adviser Condoleezza Rice earlier this month visited Moscow for fence-mending meetings with Putin and other officials.

Bush has not spoken to French President Jacques Chirac or German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder since well before the war.

A Bush administration official said it would be the State Department, not the White House, making any overtures and that one way to restore relations would be to work together with the United States on issues like rebuilding Iraq and Middle East peace.

An early measure of future US relations with war opponents could come next month at the annual Group of Eight summit in France. Officials said Bush still plans to attend the meeting of major industrial nations and Russia, which would bring him and staunch ally British Prime Minister Tony Blair face to face with Putin, Chirac, and Schroeder.

- REUTERS

Herald Feature: Iraq war