US aims to sharply cut Iraq force within a year

BAGHDAD - The United States hopes to sharply reduce its forces in Iraq by the middle of next year, its top commander on the ground said.

The remarks by General George Casey appear to have been the first time since the insurgency worsened sharply in April that top Pentagon officials have suggested a timeline for withdrawal.

Casey's comments came as a new poll showed most Americans now think the United States will lose the war in Iraq.

"I do believe that if the political process continues to go positively, if the developments with the (Iraqi) security forces continue to go as it is going, I do believe we will still be able to make fairly substantial reductions after these elections -- in the spring and summer of next year," Casey said at a briefing with visiting Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

Iraq is scheduled to hold two elections in the coming months: a referendum on a new constitution in October and an election for a new leader in December. Washington says those will be decisive milestones in a political process designed to undermine the insurgency.

Early this year Casey made a similar prediction of troop cuts, but US officials have avoided suggesting a timetable for withdrawals since violence in Iraq worsened sharply after the new government took power in April.

President Bush said in a primetime speech last month he would withdraw American forces as soon as Iraqis were prepared to take over responsibility for security. But he also said it would be dangerous to announce a timetable.

A British government memo leaked this month said Washington has a plan to cut the foreign presence in Iraq from more than 170,000 troops to just 66,000 by mid 2006. London confirmed the memo was genuine but said it reflected only one possible plan.

DESIRE OF IRAQI PEOPLE

During a joint news conference with Rumsfeld, Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari repeated Iraqi assertions that the Americans should start to leave as soon as Iraqis are ready.

"The great desire of the Iraqi people is to see the coalition forces be on their way out as they (new Iraqi security forces) take more responsibility," he said. But he said no one wanted to see a surprise pullout.

A USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll published in USA Today said 32 per cent of respondents believed the United States could not win the war in Iraq. Another 21 per cent said it was possible the United States could win but they did not believe it would.

Just 43 per cent said they were confident of victory.

The poll was also the first to report that a majority of Americans -- 51 per cent -- believed the government deliberately misled the public about the presence of banned weapons in Iraq to justify the 2003 invasion. Still, most believed it was right to go to war to topple Saddam Hussein.

Rumsfeld, making his tenth trip to Iraq since the war began, urged Iraqis to finish drafting their constitution by an Aug. 15 deadline, the next key stage in a political process Washington hopes will allow it to withdraw.

"We don't want any delays," Rumsfeld told reporters. "Now's the time to get on with it."

The committee drafting the constitution resumed work on Tuesday after Sunni Arabs -- the 20 per cent minority community that leads the insurgency -- ended a six-day boycott that began when one of their committee members was gunned down last week.

Although the draft is due on Aug. 15, the committee's chairman, Humam Hamoudi, has said it will be ready by Aug. 1, the deadline to call a six-month extension if needed.

Violence in Iraq continued on Wednesday unabated. Three Iraqis were killed and 37 injured when a mortar round fell on Baghdad's main Allawi bus station.

Iraq's defence ministry said seven of its soldiers had died in an attack by gunmen on Tuesday at a water purification station north of Baghdad. The US army said four American soldiers were killed over the weekend by a roadside bomb.

Casey said the level of attacks mounted by insurgents "has not increased substantially over what we've seen over the past year."

"I wouldn't say it's necessarily a stalemate," Casey said of the war. "Insurgencies need to progress to survive. And this insurgency is not progressing."

But US and Iraqi officials have also noted that, while the total number of insurgent strikes may not be rising, spectacular attacks such as suicide car bombs have become more frequent and deadlier over the past four months.

- REUTERS