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Home / World

Trump's weakness apparent as Xi's clout becomes clearer

By Ian Bremmer comment
NZ Herald·
6 Nov, 2017 09:00 PM5 mins to read

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US President Donald Trump, left, and China's President Xi Jinping in July in Hamburg, Germany. Photo / AP file

US President Donald Trump, left, and China's President Xi Jinping in July in Hamburg, Germany. Photo / AP file

Opinion

COMMENT

United States President Donald Trump is in Asia for a multi-country tour that is vitally important to US foreign policy for three reasons.

The trip gives Trump another chance to meet China's President Xi Jinping and to set US expectations for the future of the world's most important bilateral relationship.

It gives him an opportunity to promote his own trade and investment agenda in the region.

Finally, it will afford him a chance to work directly with regional leaders to pressure North Korea's Government and signal that the US intends to remain a forceful presence in East and Southeast Asia.

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Unfortunately for the US President, he lacks the political credibility, both at home and abroad, to accomplish any of these goals.

During a three-day visit to China starting tomorrow, Trump will again try to persuade Xi to use China's leverage with North Korea to change the Kim regime's belligerent behaviour and to back Pyongyang away from continued military threats.

China, he will argue, is the critical supplier of food, fuel, and cash to North Korea and is the only country that can force Kim to shift course.

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Trump will again offer to improve US-China commercial relations in exchange for this cooperation, and he will warn that China remains at much greater risk than the US if open conflict erupts on the Korean Peninsula.

In his first two stops, Japan and South Korea, Trump is trying to assure allies that Washington can eliminate the threat that North Korea poses to their security.

In Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines, Trump will try to convince his counterparts that the US remains committed to trade and investment in the region despite his decision to withdraw the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal.

The US President would have pressed Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe yesterday to work towards a new US-Japan trade agreement, even as Abe works to move TPP forward without the US.

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'Laughing stock': How Trump handed the wheel to China

07 Nov 04:45 PM
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Trump to N Korea: 'Don't underestimate us'

08 Nov 03:00 AM

Trump wants to reassure Abe, South Korea's Moon Jae In, the leaders he meets at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Vietnam and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations meeting in the Philippines that the US remains committed to counter-balancing the expansion of China's influence throughout the region.

JUST IN: President Trump's approval rating stands at its lowest point in CNN's polling as Russia concerns grow https://t.co/2eGk3XDkIC pic.twitter.com/k7PVMe99op

— CNN (@CNN) November 6, 2017

So why will Trump fail to achieve any of these goals?

Trump and Abe have a built a strong personal relationship, but their interests, particularly on trade, are too divergent for progress to continue for long after the visit has ended.

And all the leaders he meets are well aware that Trump remains historically unpopular in the US, that he remains in open conflict with a significant percentage of Republican lawmakers and that he has demonstrated virtually no ability or willingness to work with opposition lawmakers to build the policy consensus on which successful foreign policy depends.

His counterparts also know that the investigation into possible collusion between his presidential campaign and the Russian Government has only just begun to create distractions for the President and those around him, and that Trump may soon have even less political capital than he does now.

They're also aware that US congressional elections in 2018 will move Trump further from policy planning towards political strategy, leading the President away from consistent messaging, particularly on relations with China, if he believes it will help his party win votes.

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Trump presses trade and North Korea in Japan https://t.co/ENV3OzmUlK via @ReutersTV pic.twitter.com/6ih5lNhR48

— Reuters (@Reuters) November 6, 2017

Asian leaders can also see that the US President is becoming politically weaker at a moment of historic strength and confidence for China's President. Xi was able to use the 19th Party Congress in Beijing to stack the leadership with reliable political allies who are aligned with both Xi's domestic reform agenda and with him personally.

The formal addition of Xi's governing principles to China's constitution reinforces the point that Xi has near absolute control of China's policy agenda. Xi's unwillingness to designate a successor suggests he could remain in power beyond his second five-year term - and that his influence will remain formidable even after he chooses to give up formal power.

The contrast in strength between the US and Chinese presidents could not be clearer, and every government in East and Southeast Asia will consider this reality when making plans on how to engage these two powers long after Trump's Asia tour is over.

- Ian Bremmer is the president of Eurasia Group and author of Superpower: Three Choices for America's Role in the World. He is on Twitter as @ianbremmer and on Facebook as Ian Bremmer.

Donald Trump at the koi pond in Japan was not actually the disaster it seemed https://t.co/e9ENxP8syz

— VANITY FAIR (@VanityFair) November 6, 2017
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