Government supporters rally in Caracas today after President Donald Trump announced that US forces had captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. Photo / The Washington Post
In what appears to have been a tactically successful military operation that achieved the extradition of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the Trump Administration has invited comparisons to the capture of Panama’s Manuel Antonio Noriega exactly 36 years before, on January 3, 1990.
President George Bush snr’s invasion of Panama, while controversial, was decisive and relatively free of complications in its aftermath.
But what lies ahead in Venezuela – starting with President Donald Trump’s announced plan for the United States “to run the country until such time that we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition” – will be a challenge of vastly greater difficulties and deeper potential pitfalls.
And by declaring that US companies will move into the country and take control of what are the world’s largest proven oil reserves, Trump has also thrown into question the actual motivations for an American intervention.
“Essentially Trump confirmed that everything he has said to date was a cover story for his plan to take over Venezuela and run it for the benefit of American oil companies and his billionaire buddies,” said Senator Chris Van Hollen (Democrat-Maryland).
During his news conference today, Trump offered few details on how he plans to set the country on his promised path to stability, prosperity and democratic governance.
Nor did he rule out further military escalation or a prolonged involvement of US troops. “We are ready to stage a second and much larger attack if we need to do so,” the President said at one point.
At another: “We’re not afraid of boots on the ground”.
With Maduro en route to face what Attorney-General Pam Bondi said would be “the full wrath of American justice on American soil in American courts”, Trump also signalled a longer-range vision of US domination of the Western Hemisphere, harking to the Monroe Doctrine of the 19th century.
“The Monroe Doctrine is a big deal, but we’ve superseded it by a lot, by a real lot. They now call it the Don-roe Doctrine,” Trump said.
He warned that what happened in Venezuela could be a prelude to US military intervention in other countries in the region that are involved in drug-trafficking. Trump said Columbian President Gustavo Petro in particular should “watch his ass”.
All of which runs counter to Trump’s self-proclaimed stance as a non-interventionist, which has been an article of faith with his Maga base and its “America First” philosophy.
But in the past year, he has ordered military strikes in Iran, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Nigeria, and elsewhere. The US also has carried out months of attacks on boats accused of carrying drugs from Venezuela.
Trump’s success in Venezuela going forward will hinge on a number of factors, said Andres Martinez-Fernandez, senior policy analyst for Latin America at the conservative Heritage Foundation.
One, he said, is whether he can find reliable allies in the “skeletal remains” of the Venezuelan Government.
Maduro’s regime was deemed illegitimately elected by the US, but Trump said Secretary of State Marco Rubio had been speaking to Maduro’s handpicked vice-president, Delcy Rodriguez, and claimed “she’s essentially willing to do what we think is necessary to make Venezuela great”.
However, within hours of Trump making that statement, Rodriguez made a defiant appearance on television from Caracas in which she demanded “the immediate release of President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores. The only president of Venezuela, President Nicolas Maduro.”
Trump was dismissive of the prospects for opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize that the US President so openly coveted, to step up in the new order of things in Venezuela.
“I think it would be very tough for her to be the leader,” Trump said. “She doesn’t have the support within or the respect within the country. So, a very nice woman, but she doesn’t have the respect.”
Another challenge for the US, said the Heritage Foundation’s Martinez-Fernandez, will be dealing with the dangerous armed criminal gangs, many allied with Maduro, that remain on the ground in Venezuela.
He suggested the President would do well to seek out regional partners, including among the Trump-friendly leaders of countries such as Bolivia, Chile, Argentina and El Salvador.
At home, the Administration is certain to face pointed questions from Congress, which was not informed of the Venezuela operation in advance.
Though the Constitution explicitly vests the power “to declare war” with the legislative branch, Congress has effectively ceded much of that authority over the past three-quarters of a century to the executive.
Not since the aftermath of Pearl Harbour has Congress passed a formal declaration of war, even as tens of thousands of US military members have been killed in long-running conflicts around the world.
Democrats and some Republicans on Capitol Hill argued that Trump’s actions in Venezuela reinforce the need for Congress to reclaim its constitutional role.
“Using military force to enact regime change demands the closest scrutiny, precisely because the consequences do not end with the initial strike,” Senator Mark Warner (D-Virginia), vice-chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, wrote on social media.
“If the US asserts the right to use military force to invade and capture foreign leaders it accuses of criminal conduct, what prevents China from claiming the same authority over Taiwan’s leadership? What stops Vladimir Putin from asserting similar justification to abduct Ukraine’s president?” Warner added.
“Once this line is crossed, the rules that restrain global chaos begin to collapse, and authoritarian regimes will be the first to exploit it,” he said.
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