Today: the moment of truth

12.30am

United States President George W. Bush yesterday laid down a stark choice to a divided United Nations Security Council, declaring that a "moment of truth for the world" had arrived.

Poised for war against Iraq, the US and its close allies Britain and Spain drew nearer to abandoning efforts to gain international approval for military action unless the Security Council immediately backed a resolution on the use of force.

The Security Council consultations, due to start at 3am today NZ time, may be the last on a resolution that appears doomed and faces opposition from a majority of council members.

With his declaration, Mr Bush left little doubt that he has made up his mind to try to overthrow Saddam Hussein and disarm Iraq by force.

The timing of any strike may be made clear today when Mr Bush is expected to address the American people.

The speech would also serve as a warning to UN weapons inspectors and others to evacuate Iraq.

Prime Minister Helen Clark said yesterday that she expected the gap between the declaration of war and the start of hostilities to be only a matter of days.

"Obviously we are at a particularly bleak point in that crisis. I think only a miracle will stop [war] at this point."

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs yesterday advised New Zealanders to defer or review all travel to the Middle East and to immediately leave Iraq, Kuwait, Syria, Jordan, Israel, Gaza and the West Bank.

Saddam Hussein also appeared ready for war, telling military commanders that if Iraq were attacked, it would take the war anywhere in the world "wherever there is sky, land or water".

Australia's Cabinet met last night to discuss the crisis. Prime Minister John Howard said his country's involvement in war was growing "more likely".

Australia has 2000 military personnel in the Middle East preparing for conflict with Iraq but has not yet given them the go-ahead to join any strikes.

The National Party last night voiced its strongest support yet for US-led action.

Foreign affairs spokesman Dr Wayne Mapp told his North Shore electorate's annual meeting: "Support for action led by the United States and Britain is the right course for New Zealand."

The momentum towards war appeared to quicken after Mr Bush and the leaders of Britain, Spain and Portugal concluded a meeting on the wind-swept Azores Islands in the eastern Atlantic.

"We concluded that tomorrow is a moment of truth for the world," Mr Bush said. The 15-member Security Council had to agree in the next 24 hours on a resolution laying the groundwork for war.

And he left no doubt that if it did not, the US and its allies would invade Iraq without UN backing.

After weeks of trying to get the minimum nine votes for the US-British-Spanish resolution, the Bush Administration ended with only one nation, Bulgaria, publicly declaring its support.

France and Russia have threatened a veto. Mr Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair repeatedly challenged President Jacques Chirac of France to withdraw his veto threat.

If he does not, they are expected to walk away from the UN process rather than face defeat.

To be adopted in the Security Council, a resolution needs a minimum of nine votes and no veto from the five permanent members - the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China.

Diplomats said France's Foreign Minister, Dominique de Villepin, was considering attending a Security Council meeting tomorrow, when chief weapons inspector Hans Blix is to speak about key tasks for Iraqi disarmament mandated under a 1999 resolution.

If he travels to New York, other foreign ministers are bound to follow, for the fifth time this year.

Mr Blair, who like Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar faces overwhelming domestic sentiment against war, challenged UN members to make their minds up "overnight" on the resolution, but held little hope of a consensus.

"It is difficult to know how we can resolve this," Mr Blair told reporters on his plane back to London.

At the United Nations yesterday, British Ambassador Jeremy Greenstock worked the telephones, to "take the temperature" of council members and "see if there was any flexibility", diplomats said.

The resolution before the council gives Saddam until today to scrap or account for any weapons of mass destruction.

Britain had offered to extend that deadline by up to 10 days if the measure had a chance of adoption.

Although most Security Council members have been reluctant to endorse the US-backed resolution, American and British ire has been directed towards France.

"We have an expression in Texas that says, 'Show your cards'," Mr Bush said yesterday. "France has shown its card. Now we have to see tomorrow what that card meant."

In an interview in the French weekly Journal du Dimanche, published yesterday, Mr de Villepin blamed the American pressure on the Security Council on an inflexible timetable set by the US military for an invasion.

Mr Blair is eager for a UN resolution that could shore up his crumbling political base, threatened by strong anti-war sentiment in his Labour Party and in the country.

If there is no vote on the new resolution, the legal situation might be governed by United Nations Resolution 1441, adopted on November 8, which threatened "serious consequences" if Iraq did not disarm.

If the new resolution is defeated, an attack against Iraq would violate international law.

- REUTERS, STAFF REPORTER, AGENCIES

Herald Feature: Iraq