More than 50 American fighter jets, including F-35s, have been moved to the Middle East this week. Photo / Getty Images
United States fighter jets tracked as heading towards the Middle East could be laying the groundwork for a major bombing campaign.
The uptick in warplanes travelling to the Gulf is likely to be used to clear the way for heavy bombers to strike at the heart of Iran’s regime, experts have said.
Large numbers of American combat aircraft and support planes such as air-to-air refuellers have been seen moving eastwards this week.
The combination of the approaching USS Gerald R. Ford strike group and the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, which is already positioned in the Arabian Sea, analysts predict that US President Donald Trump is preparing a sustained military campaign against Iran.
One source in the US Administration said there was now a 90% chance of war in the coming weeks.
An Israeli former intelligence chief said he believed the strike would take place within days.
More than 50 American fighter jets, including F-35s and F-16s, were moved to the region in the 24 hours before yesterday.
In the meantime, dozens of eastward flights of air-to-air refuelling tankers have also been tracked.
One online military flight tracker said “anything that can fly or refuel” appeared to be moving to the region.
Sascha Bruchmann, a research fellow at the Bahrain-based International Institute for Strategic Studies think-tank, said that fast jets, such as the F-16s and F-35s, were likely to be used to clear the way to the main targets.
He said: “They are there to kick the door in, what we call suppression of enemy air defences”.
He added that once the path was cleared, the heavy bombers were likely to do most of the damage, should Trump decide to order strikes.
These are the B-2 “stealth” bombers, which were used in the attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities last June, as well as B-52s, potentially.
The US could deploy them directly to Iran from bases on the North American continent, Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, or Okinawa in Japan.
The build-up of aircraft follows a second round of talks on Iran’s nuclear programme in Geneva yesterday.
JD Vance, the US Vice-President, said the regime was failing to acknowledge Trump’s “red lines”.
It is not clear whether the military surge is a threat to wring concessions from the regime in nuclear talks, or whether Trump is ready and willing to strike.
Air strikes on Iran began while negotiations were taking place last year.
The US’ large movement of warplanes follows the Islamic regime’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the entrance to the Gulf. Iran will begin joint naval drills with Russia tomorrow.
Experts believe that Washington could also use the dozens of seaborne and land-based fighter aircraft it is moving to the Middle East defensively in the event of an Iranian counter-attack.
For example, F-15s in the region have been photographed apparently fitted out to shoot down multiple drones, rather than for offensive operations.
US officials told Axios that these military assets would enable a weeks-long campaign against the Iranian regime, and not just against targets related to its nuclear programme.
Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence, said he believed a war could start in a “matter of days”.
While the US has been steadily building up its capability since Tehran killed thousands of protesters over a month ago, trackers have noticed a significant increase in the volume of flights towards the Middle East over the past three days.
On Tuesday, there were at least six flights of the Stratotankers headed towards the Middle East, with a further eight recorded yesterday.
Nearly 20 US F-35 combat aircraft took off from RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk on Tuesday, heading towards the Middle East.
The next day, around 25 F-16 jets flew from the US to the Middle East, with many landing in southern Israel.
Other destinations for US aircraft include Jordan and Crete.
Matthew Savill, the director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, said the US had built an impressive amount of firepower, already more than most countries could assemble.
He said: “Israel could nearly double what is available in the air if it joined, and it’s worth recognising that the current force will be more precise than its predecessors, with greater air superiority”.
He added that, even without Israel, once the second carrier arrived, the force would be capable of executing hundreds of air sorties per day for weeks, and delivering a high rate of Tomahawk missile strikes.
It is not known whether the US has any missile submarines in the area, which could boost the fleet’s power.
Currently, one Ohio-class submarine is capable of carrying more Tomahawks than the entire Royal Navy.
Savill added: “It is unknown what impact this will have.
“It could coerce a change of policy by the regime, and strike across its missile programmes. But we don’t know if it can force the regime out of power because we have no good external understanding of how brittle it is.”
Transport and surveillance aircraft have also been tracked moving towards the region.
A source within the US administration told Axios: “The boss is getting fed up. Some people around him warn him against going to war with Iran, but I think there is a 90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks.”
Iran has been trying to focus on its nuclear programme and sanctions relief.
However, Trump is under pressure from Israel to demand restrictions on Tehran’s ballistic missile programme and its support for regional terror groups.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is believed to be advocating for a heavy attack aimed at toppling the Islamic Republic, given that he is wary of the US’ poorly planned attack against the regime in January.
Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon official, said Trump had ordered the largest US naval deployment since the Gulf War in 2003.
He said: “Two factors shape this naval deployment. First, it aligns with Trump tactics: precipitate a crisis to gain leverage and then de-escalate. Trump likely doesn’t want war, but he needs to show credible commitment to it if diplomacy has any chance to succeed.
“If it does not, of course he will have air-power and assets in place to neutralise Iran’s assets and control its airspace.”
Gulf Arab states strongly lobbied against Trump bombing Tehran in January, fearing regional instability more than a relatively weak regime.
The two US seaborne air wings would give the White House the flexibility to continue a campaign in the face of objections from Arab partners, some of whom host US air bases.
Satellite imagery suggests the US has increased its surface-to-air missile defence capability in these countries over recent weeks.
Bruchmann added that a large number of the transport flights that had been detected going into the Middle East were intended to bolster missile defence capability before an expected Iranian retaliation on US assets in the Gulf, allies and Israel.
“We’re expecting the Iranians to lash out, because at that stage it’s about regime survival.”
He said the main significance of the arrival of a second aircraft carrier is to increase the longevity of a US bombing campaign.
“It’s about magazine depth,” he said. “If a carrier is conducting offensive operations, at some point it runs out of ammunition. Having two carriers allows you to switch, giving one time to reload.”
Speaking to Fox News about negotiations in Geneva, Vance said: “In some ways it went well. They agreed to meet afterwards. But in other ways, it was very clear that the President has set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through.”
He added: “We’re going to keep on working it, but of course, the president reserves the ability to say when he thinks that diplomacy has reached its natural end”.
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