US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before boarding Air Force One at Palm Beach International Airport in West Palm Beach, Florida. Photo / Getty Images
It took almost a month. But on the tarmac of Florida’s Palm Beach International Airport, Donald Trump abruptly announced that peace talks to end the conflict with Iran had begun.
“We have had very, very strong talks. We’ll see where they lead. We have points, major points of agreement – I would say almost all points of agreement,” the US President told reporters beside the steps of Air Force One.
On the surface, it seemed that his warning had worked. A day and a half earlier, Trump had issued Tehran a blunt ultimatum: reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or face strikes on its energy infrastructure.
The abrupt shift in position, from the threat of energy infrastructure being destroyed to fresh peace talks, has fuelled debate and scepticism in Washington about what is really happening behind the scenes.
While countries braced for a dramatic escalation in the war, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the President’s envoys, were reportedly in touch with Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian parliament, about ending the conflict.
The pair, who have become a conflict-solving double act since Trump’s return to office, were in Miami meeting with a Ukrainian delegation over the weekend. They were also coordinating the terms of a 15-point peace deal that could end the war in Iran.
Talks were indirect. Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey have passed messages between the US and Iran for two days as they desperately tried to avoid a global recession caused by rising energy prices and the collateral effects on markets and business.
The foreign ministers of the three countries reportedly held separate talks with Witkoff and Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister. By Sunday evening, there was a readiness for Washington and Tehran to start talking.
“The Iranians were forthcoming, and the Americans wanted to move as well because of the markets and the oil prices,” an Israeli source told Axios.
The suggested terms of the peace deal would prevent Iran from having a missile programme for five years, requiring the country to halt uranium enrichment and decommission the Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow nuclear facilities that the United States attacked in 2025.
In return, the US would agree to provide guarantees against the recurrence of another war and close its primary base in the region, which hosts some 50,000 troops.
The discussions were judged serious enough for Trump to call off his threat to strike Iran’s power plants. This move reassured markets already suffering from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
“Fifteen points. They’re not going to have a nuclear weapon. That’s number one, two, and three,” Trump told reporters on Monday. “They’ve agreed to that.”
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker, insists no such talks exist, dismissing the President’s claims as “fake news”.
A veteran of the Iranian revolutionary guards, Ghalibaf has emerged as the highest-profile political figure in the Islamic republic after the killing of its leaders.
A well-known figure for three decades and one of the Islamic republic’s most prominent non-clerical figures, the 64-year-old appears to be playing a key role in the war effort.
While the son and successor of Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not appeared in public and has issued just three written statements, Ghalibaf has posted multiple statements to X and given a number of interviews.
“No negotiations have been held with the US, and fake news is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped,” he said.
In his Florida remarks, Trump did not name the Iranian interlocutor, saying he did not want to have him killed. But he claimed the US and Iran were aligned on many of the key issues that could lead to peace.
“We are dealing with a man that I believe is the most respected, not the supreme leader, we have not heard from him,” the President said.
Iran – and many others – view Trump’s comments as attempts to manipulate oil and financial markets. The President, re-elected on a pledge to bring down prices and prevent foreign wars, is now presiding over soaring energy costs as a result of the conflict.
Brent crude hit US$119 ($204) per barrel on Thursday and Goldman Sachs predicted it would break its record of $147.50 ($253.61). It fell under $100 ($171) following Trump’s comments. US stocks bounced back hours after a rout on Asian markets.
“The best thing he does is realise the capital market situations,” a source with knowledge of the President’s thinking said. “With the bond market, the commodities market is real. They’re going to have an incredible lasting damage, and he’s got to figure out something. So this is the first thing, but there’s been no discussions.”
Despite Trump’s claims of a move towards peace, there did not yet appear to be any direct talks yet between Ghalibaf and the administration.
An Israeli official told Axios that the mediating countries were trying to convene a meeting in Islamabad between Ghalibaf and the President’s special envoys, as well as JD Vance later this week.
This week, it was reported that the Vice-President had spoken with Benjamin Netanyahu and discussed components needed to end the war.
Vance’s sudden involvement in peace talks – until now he had been largely absent and was considered a sceptic of the conflict – signals the White House’s pivot from war footing to political management.
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