US President Donald Trump takes the stage at a rally at Alumni Coliseum in Richmond, Kentucky, yesterday. Photo / AP
Three weeks before critical US Midterm elections, voters are expressing significantly more interest in turning out than they were four years ago, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Enthusiasm is up across almost all demographic groups, but the increases are greater among younger adults, non-white voters and those who say they favour Democrats for the House.
At the same time, President Donald Trump's job approval rating has risen five points after tying a record low point in August, although Democrats maintain a double-digit advantage in overall support for Congress, the poll finds.
Four years ago, Midterm voter turnout fell to its lowest level in more than half a century.
Republicans were able to capitalise by expanding their House majority and taking control of the Senate.
Today, with that GOP House majority at risk and some close Senate races that will determine who has control of that chamber in January, a 77 per cent majority of registered voters say they are certain to vote next month or have already voted, up from a 65 per cent majority in Post-ABC polls in October 2014.
Sure to vote
Certainty to vote is up 32 points among women younger than 40, compared with 2014.
Among men and women ages 18 to 29, it has risen 17 points.
Among non-white registered voters, 72 per cent are now certain to vote, up from 48 per cent in Post-ABC polling in October 2014.
White men without college degrees represent the one heavily Republican group whose certainty to vote is lower than average and has increased less than other groups since 2014.
In contrast, white women with college degrees are up 15 points to 88 per cent. For white women without degrees, the figure is up 12 points.
Among voters who prefer Democratic candidates for the House, 81 per cent say they are certain to vote, up from 60 per cent in 2014. Among those who support Republican candidates for the House, enthusiasm now stands at 76 per cent, compared with 73 per cent in October 2014.
This trend is clearer now. Generic ballot polls conducted since Kavanaugh was confirmed have not been good for Republicans. All a bit weird because they had a good week of Senate polls and an OK-ish week of House district polls. pic.twitter.com/VWALt1YriO
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 14, 2018
Kavanaugh impact
The poll offers no definitive answer to the question of how the partisan battle over the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh has affected intensity among voters from both parties.
By one measure, the percentage of Republican voters who say they are now certain to vote has risen slightly more than among Democrats since August. By another, the Democrats' advantage from before the Kavanaugh fight remains.
Asked directly, 33 per cent of registered voters said the debate over Kavanaugh made them more likely to support Democrats while 27 per cent said they are more apt to back Republicans, with a 39 per cent plurality saying it makes no difference.
While national effects are mixed, Republicans' overwhelming support for Trump's nominee may be a liability for Democratic senators running for re-election in heavily Republican states, including West Virginia and North Dakota.
What I heard today from some smart R and D operatives: Will 2018 be more like 2016 (R overperformance after big D polls/expectations) or 2017 (D overperformance in VA after close polls/expectations?) Both Ds and Rs privately unsure, despite public bravado.
— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) October 13, 2018
House preference
Registered voters say they prefer the Democratic candidate for the House over the Republican candidate by 11 percentage points - 53 per cent to 42 per cent. That is slightly lower than in August, when the Democratic advantage was 14 points.
Among likely voters in the new survey, the margin is 13 points. Historically, that kind of gap foreshadows gains, possibly substantial, for the Democrats.
Gender gap
The gender gap remains large, as it has all year.
Among registered voters, women favour Democratic House candidates by 59 per cent to 37 per cent while men split about evenly, with 48 per cent favouring Republican House candidates and 46 per cent favoring Democrats.
Those registered voters who describe themselves as independents favour Democrats by 52 per cent to 38 per cent, driven primarily by a 2-to-1 advantage for Democrats among independent women (62 per cent to 29 per cent).
White women with college degrees split 57 per cent to 42 per cent for Democratic candidates while white women without a college education lean towards Republicans, 49 per cent to 43 per cent.
Everything in American politics today entrenches tribalism: our winner-take-all elections, the dehumanizing commentary on cable news and social media, the people we choose to talk to and live among. https://t.co/dJvNqtFMqe
— The New Yorker (@NewYorker) October 14, 2018
Trump' approval
The upward move in the President's approval rating brought it to 41 per cent, with 54 per cent disapproving, among adults overall. Among both registered voters and likely voters in the survey, his approval rating stood at 43 per cent.
Approval of his handling of the economy stands at 49 per cent, with 46 per cent disapproving. This is the first time Trump has received net positive ratings on the economy in Post-ABC polls.
That increase in overall approval has not translated into similar Republican gains on the generic ballot because a record 90 per cent of those who say they disapprove of the President now say they are supporting Democratic House candidates, up from 83 per cent in August.
Among those who approve of the President's job performance, 87 per cent support GOP House candidates - also a high in Post-ABC polling this election cycle.
Historically, there is a close correlation between approval or disapproval of a sitting president and voting intentions in Midterm elections, which is one reason Republicans have been eager all year to see the President's approval ratings increase.
news analysis: Is Trump on a Collision Course With Impeachment? https://t.co/MsUmD7OzYl
— The New York Times (@nytimes) October 13, 2018
'Important' elections
Majorities of voters see the upcoming elections as more important than in the past, with Democrats more likely to say so than Republicans.
By 74 per cent to 61 per cent, registered voters who identify as Democrats or lean towards the Democratic Party are more likely than registered voters who identify as Republicans or lean toward the GOP to say these Midterm elections are more important than past ones.
Trump and Congress
The share of voters who say they prefer the next Congress to be in Democratic hands as a way of providing a check on Trump has fallen from 60 per cent in August to 54 per cent today, while the percentage who say they want a Congress controlled by Republicans to help support the President's agenda has risen from 34 per cent to 41 per cent.
The current levels are similar to opinions of then-President Barack Obama ahead of the 2010 and 2014 Midterms. Democrats suffered losses in both those elections.
Majorities of Democrats and Republicans say supporting a candidate who shares their view of Trump is an important consideration in their vote.
Overall, 58 per cent of voters say this is "extremely" or "very" important, including 63 per cent of Democrats and those who lean Democratic and 56 per cent of Republicans and those who lean Republican.
The first @CNN numbers for 2020 Democratic presidential nomination just released this morning:
— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) October 14, 2018
Biden 33%
Sanders 13%
Harris 9%
Warren 8%
Booker 5%
Kerry 5%
Bloomberg 4%
O’Rourke 4%
Holder 3%
Garcetti 2%
Avenatti 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Patrick 1%
Bullock <1%
Delaney <1%
Trust in party
Among all adults, Democrats are trusted more than Republicans to deal with the main problems facing the nation, by 45 per cent to 37 per cent.
Four years ago, adults split 39 per cent to 39 per cent on that question. In 2006, when Democrats swept to power in the House, their advantage on this question was 19 points.
Party advantage
Of six individual issues, Democrats hold marginal to significant leads on five of them while Republicans hold a narrow advantage on one - the economy, by 45 per cent to 41 per cent. Democrats are rated insignificantly better on taxes (45 per cent to 42 per cent).
Democratic advantages on the others are all by double digits. They lead by 10 points on which party is trusted more to change the way things are working in Washington; by 11 points on the appointment of judges to the Supreme Court; by 12 points on immigration; and by 26 points on who is trusted to handle equal treatment of men and women.
The economy and healthcare rank as the most important voting issues, followed by changing the way things work in Washington and the equal treatment of women and men, followed by taxes, immigration and the appointment of judges to the high court.