A year ago today (Friday), Brits went to sleep not knowing if the country would still be intact when they woke up. The referendum on Scottish independence had ended in a surge of support for the separatists, and their victory seemed not only possible but likely. The partition of Britain, an idea that had once seemed too daft to take seriously, very nearly happened. Just under 45 per cent of Scots voted for it, raising fundamental questions about our national cohesion. It's an old argument.
"You talked of Scotland as a lost cause," John Steinbeck once wrote to a friend; "That is not true. Scotland is an unwon cause." That's certainly how Nicola Sturgeon sees it. The First Minister now talks about when, rather than whether, a second referendum will take place. We can expect one in the manifesto for next year's Holyrood election, which is almost certain to give her a commanding majority. Three factors work in her favour: her rock star popularity, her command of a government machine able to fight for independence every day, and a UK Government that can't bring itself to fight back.
For unionists, there was no great victory last year. The celebration in No 10 demonstrated the lack of understanding which led to this mess in the first place. Separation would have been a calamity but the closeness of the result was still a disaster; all the more because the "No" side had relied upon relentlessly negative arguments. To Andrew Cooper, formerly David Cameron's chief strategist, this was the only way to win. Later, he said the only criticism he would allow of his campaign was that it was not negative enough. It was a poison, which had the desired effect against the enemy. But it has swirled around the Scottish political bloodstream ever since.
It led to the implosion of the Scottish Labour Party, the quadrupling of the SNP's membership and the party taking 56 of Scotland's 59 seats at the general election. Using old-style politics - street campaigning and village hall meetings - it has assembled something that often looks closer to a religion than a political movement. And Sturgeon has brilliantly kept the debate on her preferred territory: endless squabbles about constitutional reform. When speaking about Scotland today, David Cameron is expected to refer to "tabling an amendment to the Scotland Bill", still dancing to a nationalist tune.
Sturgeon's seemingly unassailable position is all the more baffling when you consider the mess that her party has made of the powers it already wields. The SNP has governed public services in Scotland since 2007, so it is easy to test its central theory: that "home rule" is better rule. If this were true, we would see Scottish students pulling ahead of English ones; hospital waiting times crashing down and exciting and innovative methods of policing. Instead, a very different picture presents itself for those with an eye to see it.
