The Front Page: What’s the cause of China-Taiwan tensions, and where does it leave New Zealand?

China staged military exercises near Taiwan after President Tsai Ing-wen visited the US. Photo / AP

An international relations expert who has followed the China-Taiwan relationship for 50 years says the possibility of war between the two is “frightening”.

Tensions between mainland China and Taiwan have ramped up in recent days, after Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen visited the United States and spoke with House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

China responded by staging three days of military exercises, including simulating strikes and “sealing off” the island with an aircraft carrier.

Associate Professor of Politics and International Relations at the University of Auckland, Stephen Hoadley, has been following the case for Taiwanese independence and Chinese pushback for five decades.

Speaking to The Front Page, the NZ Herald’s daily podcast, Hoadley says tensions date back centuries, with China having taken control of Taiwan under the Ming Dynasty.

While that historical context has led modern-day China to assert a “one China” policy, Hoadley says Taiwan has its own indigenous population, with anthropologists linking many Polynesian cultures back to the island, and multiple countries have claimed sovereignty over the island before and after Chinese rule.

“The Dutch, the Portuguese, the Spanish and the Japanese all took sovereignty of Taiwan. So the people in Taiwan say Taiwan has spent as much time under other powers as it has under China, and therefore it has every right to chart its own independent course.

“So the interpretation of history on the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are quite in contrast, and that is, in some respects, the root of the current tension and conflict.”

He says the possibility of war is “frightening” and the consequences would be felt across the world.

“It would destroy the economic progress that we’ve made in the last five decades of globalisation and increasing global prosperity. It would be worse than Covid in terms of its consequences for mortality and slowdown of economic activity.”

He says that the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington has run 24 war games to see how a US pushback against a Chinese invasion would play out.

“10,000 troops were killed. Two aircraft carriers were sunk. Hundreds of ships and aircraft were lost. The economies of superpowers were slowed down - but the invasion was prevented, but the cost was so high.”

Hoadley says that many countries are focused on a deterrent policy to convince China against war, and are supplying defensive missiles to Taiwan so it would be able to defend itself, in the same way that Ukraine has been armed to fight off the Russian invasion without direct foreign aid.

The tensions leave New Zealand in an awkward position, with the country reliant on China for trade, but more closely aligned with the United States on defence and military. Hoadley disagrees that we need to rush to pick a side.

“I don’t think we should prematurely try to anticipate moving strongly one way or the other as long as we can get good results by relations equally with Washington and with Beijing, and of course, continuing our good relations with Taiwan as well.”

Listen to the full podcast for more on the historical context for the tensions, how the rest of the world is getting involved, and what New Zealand’s role should be.