KEY POINTS:
It is one of the world's greatest natural spectacles.
More than 500,000 flamingos congregate on the salty shores of Lake Natron in the north of Tanzania every year to breed. And it could be about to end.
That is the dire warning from a coalition
of 32 environmental groups in east Africa if a company backed by the Indian conglomerate Tata Chemicals gets the go-ahead to build a soda ash factory at the lake. The factory would produce 500,000 tonnes of soda ash, also known as sodium carbonate, every year.
Tanzania's state-owned National Development Corporation, which will jointly run the factory with Tata, said that it has moved the proposed site 22 miles away from the shore after opposition was first raised. But conservationists say it will make little difference.
"The landscape will be destroyed," said Ken Mwathe of Birdlife Africa. "It doesn't matter where the actual factory is n they will still be taking the soda ash from the lake.
"Lake Natron is the lowest point of the Rift Valley; a shallow soda lake where temperatures can soar to 50C. Set at the foot of one of Africa's last remaining active volcanoes, known as Oldonyo Lengai or Mountain of God, Lake Natron's lunar landscape is the perfect breeding ground for flamingos.
Natron's maximum depth is just 10 feet. Most of the sodium carbonate that washes down from Oldonyo Lengai evaporates in the heat. The high salt concentrations create an abundance of cyanobacteria, on which the flamingos feed.
The birds are also attracted to the lake by the absence of predators. The high temperatures make it an inhospitable place for those that might hunt flamingos.
Conservationists estimate that 75 per cent of the world's population of lesser flamingos was hatched on the shores of the lake, including nearly all of those found in the lakes and parks of east Africa.
Some estimates put the number as high as 2.5 million. Without Natron there would no longer be any flamingos at Lakes Nakuru, Bogoria and Elmenteita in Kenya, or Lake Manyara, Arusha National Park and Ngorongoro Crater in Tanzania. Tourism would take a major hit in both countries.
The lesser flamingo is classified as "near threatened", owing to its vulnerability to minor ecological change at a small number of important sites. Building a factory which would increase pollution and environmental degradation could be catastrophic to the flamingos' survival, conservationists warn. The chemical balance of the lake would be changed dramatically, destroying the cyanobacteria.
The new factory would also bring more vehicles and more humans. These changes, particularly those which affect the chemical composition of the lake's water, could also bring predators to the area. A warning for Lake Natron lies 20 miles away, across the border in Kenya.
Lake Magadi is similarly alkaline. Parts of it still look stunning and it was used as a setting in the film The Constant Gardener.
But since a soda ash factory was built there, flamingos have stopped breeding. A network of pipes and roads criss-cross the lake. Visitor numbers are far lower than at Natron.
Proponents of the factory on the shore of Lake Natron claim the project's risks to the environment have been exaggerated. "We find their claims baseless," said Hamid Bisanga of the National Development Corporation. "It will not change the ecology n we will just extract the sodium carbonate.
"The flamingos, he said, would not be affected. "The breeding ground for the flamingos is on the other side of the lake. We are being very careful not to disturb the birds." Rather than being a burden, Mr Bisanga argued, the factory would bring jobs and development to an area that has long been ignored.
This argument, between conservationists trying to preserve a precious part of Africa's natural wonder, and government and big business calling for increased industrialisation, is not limited to Lake Natron.
Across the border in Kenya, two sides are similarly primed to fight over the future of the Tana Delta, Kenya's most important wetlands. A government-backed plan would bring an 80,000-acre sugar plantation to the area, wiping out one-third of the wetlands, which is home to hippos, crocodiles, lions n and more than 300 species of bird.
In Uganda, a battle is raging over a proposal to raze part of the protected Mabira forest and turn it into a sugar plantation. In all three cases the local population has been divided between those wishing to protect their environment and those swayed by the argument that the new projects will bring jobs.
The battle for Africa's natural resources has intensified in the past decade as first China, and now India, have joined the new "scramble for Africa". India invited African heads of state last month to the first India-Africa Summit in Delhi.
China held an even bigger summit last year with more than 40 heads of state in attendance. "We will see more projects like this," said Mr Mwathe. Some see positive signs even in the battles themselves.
"Civil society in Africa is now willing mobilise," said Chris Magin, an international officer with the RSPB. "They have realised it is possible to challenge central government and win. For many decades since independence autocratic governments have imposed their will.
But with increased access to communication, a better-educated and wealthier population people are willing to confront their leaders."The environmental groups opposing the factory at Lake Natron are adamant they are not "anti-development".
"It is the responsibility of the government to bring development to its people," said Mr Mwathe, "but it needs to be done in a careful way that doesn't exploit our natural resources.
If we damage Lake Natron today, we damage the Tana Delta tomorrow, and Mabira Forest the day after. We will be doomed for a long, long time."
- INDEPENDENT
