The case of the missing dictator

By CAHAM MILMO

The sources in Baghdad were adamant: Saddam Hussein vanished into a subterranean command centre two days before the war began and refuses to use a telephone for fear of being traced by the CIA. Instead, he communicates to his generals by handwritten notes and video tapes.

Welcome to the latest addition to the jigsaw of reports, rumours, investigations and intelligence leaks that forms the key mystery of the war in Iraq: the whereabouts and well-being of the man whose death or capture is vital to the success of the Anglo-American invasion.

Ever since American cruise missiles and B-2 bombers tried a precision bombing assassination of the Iraqi leader as the opening shot of the second Gulf War, the health of the 65-year-old despot has become an obsession for the propagandists of Washington, London and Baghdad.

A typical tantalising snippet came on Thursday from a pan-Arab news service, Al Bawaba, which quoted "reliable sources" in Baghdad saying that Saddam was alive but incommunicado in his bunker - not unlike another American target, Osama Bin Laden.

In its report, Al Bawaba said: "Saddam has learned that Americans analyse the background and even the air clarity of the videos for clues to the location, so he has pre-recorded his most important messages and instructions to the Iraqi people.

"Three different taped recordings for when the Americans are about to enter Baghdad are already waiting. Saddam assumes that if the Americans hear him broadcasting, a guided missile will be quick to arrive."

The whereabouts of the Iraqi leader is apparently known only to his son, Qusay, who is in charge of the defence of the capital.

The report added to the vast pile of leaked intelligence data and journalistic inquiry that has been put into the public domain suggesting that Saddam is anything from dead or critically injured as a result of the March 19 attack, to living in splendid isolation as a despotic hermit.

According to observers, the resulting confusion is helpful to the Anglo-American cause and something that the Pentagon and the Ministry of Defence will be happy to see continue.

Chris Wright, head of security issues at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, said: "This is all about how the Americans sold the war in the first place - it is much easier to sell a potential conflict if you personalise it and say it is all about Saddam and his regime.

"What they are doing now is letting these stories drip out with the clear intention of creating uncertainty within the regime and the population to inspire revolt. In a sense, it almost doesn't matter whether they are true or not."

Washington, which has doggedly insisted it has reached "no firm conclusion" about the success of the cruise missile assassination bid, confirmed yesterday that it was taking those doubts directly to Iraqis via Commando Solo - the operation to broadcast to the population from airborne radio transmitters flying over Iraq.

The New York Times reported that Washington - by repeatedly saying it does not know if Saddam is alive - is trying to sow doubt in the minds of Iraqi commanders about whether they should keep fighting for someone who could be dead.

"From what our intelligence is picking up, some of the Iraqi commanders themselves have not heard from him," one senior official told the paper.

"And we don't know ourselves. So you could call this psychological warfare, or you could call it exploitation of the biggest mystery out there."

Meanwhile, the regime is unflappable in assuring victory, and Saddam is reported almost daily to be meeting with his inner circle in top-secret locations.

State television interrupts its programming to report on the meetings, showing footage of a confident and smiling Saddam dressed in his military uniform. Only yesterday Iraqi satellite television showed footage of Saddam chairing a meeting of senior ministers.

The television announcer said Saddam was discussing the state of Iraqi troops' battle readiness as US-led forces closed in on Baghdad.

The television did not say when the meeting took place, but said those present included Iraq's vice-president and ministers of defence and irrigation.

Saddam, in military uniform, appeared businesslike and calm. He and his ministers seemed to be meeting in a barely furnished room above ground, with light showing through the drawn orange curtains.

But with the American Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, taking up the theme by asking in an interview last week, "Where is Saddam Hussein?", the answer to the question grows ever more nebulous.

According to Washington, evidence to suggest all is not well with the Iraqi leader grew last week when one of his personal bodyguards, who normally never leave his side, accompanied the Defence Minister to a television station.

As Rumsfeld euphemistically put it: "It may be an indication that Saddam Hussein is not moving around much."

Others point to the fact that the latest attempts by Saddam to bolster his forces have consisted of three statements read by his sphinx-like Information Minister, Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf, and not personal appearances by the leader, or indeed any of his three doubles. Experts noted that the latest statement, issued yesterday, contained no detailed references to the battle raging around Baghdad, offering instead rhetoric with strong religious overtones: "Fight them with your hands, God will disgrace them. God is great."

Nuances in the language used by senior Iraqi officials have also been used by Washington to suggest a certain wobbliness within the regime.

Mohammed Douri, Baghdad's ambassador to the UN, hesitated when asked this weekend whether Saddam was still alive before saying: "I think that he is alive, of course, because we saw him several times on TV."

In Iraq, an unnamed "senior official" asked the same question by a reporter from the France 2 television station replied: "Saddam is alive. He is in all our hearts." The response was being interpreted in France as a perhaps accidental hint that the moustachioed President is dead.

American intelligence has also said a sharp fall in the number of orders issued from Baghdad to field commanders, and the fact that the names of those giving the orders are unfamiliar, indicates that the attempt to "decapitate" the leadership was at least partially successful. Others are less certain.

Saddam's ability to isolate himself from even the closest members of his entourage and vanish at times of war, as he did in 1991 by commandeering ordinary homes each night, is well known.

The reports that he is in a bunker, issuing handwritten orders indicating which video tape to play to the world and digesting summaries of media coverage compiled by a small army of translators, would seem, therefore, more plausible.

As his regime's self-declared "war of attrition" against the British and Americans continues, Saddam may have gambled that the level of destruction required to find him will destabilise neighbouring states such as Saudi Arabia and force the Allies to seek negotiations.

According to one Middle East-based commentator, this resistance may also have given Saddam - alive or dead - the status he has long hankered for by airbrushing his crimes and seeing himself declared a latter-day Saladin in the Arab world.

Sharif Elmusa, of the American University in Cairo, said: "If Saddam hadn't fought like this, he would quickly have gone into obscurity. Now he's being lionised. He's going to go down in Arab history as someone who stood up to foreign invaders."

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Herald Feature: Iraq war