Tehran braces for fresh protests

In the Persian calendar, 22 Bahman has a revered place as the anniversary of the overthrow of the Western-backed monarchy by the world's first Islamic revolution.

Tonight, Iran begins marking 31 years since that event, and in Tehran the preparations are underway. Bunting and flags are strung across the streets, and loudspeakers have been fixed to lamp posts to relay speeches which, according to tradition, should be met by mass roars of "Death to America" from crowds gathered beneath the city's Azadi monument.

This year, however, as Iran's nuclear standoff with the West escalates to crisis levels, the opposition is planning to hijack the annual "celebrations" for its biggest show of strength in months. Pro-government forces will also be out in force and the pieces are in place for a volatile confrontation.

No one doubts that the security forces have been readying their weapons and the prisons, clearing space for "rioters", and the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has threatened they will be given a "punch in the mouth" if they dare to protest.

After months of a crackdown that has included the execution of several leading reformists, many believe the values on which the Islamic republic were founded have been betrayed by a ruthless and militarised cabal motivated by wealth and power. They have even begun to question the doctrine which vests supreme authority in Khamenei. Faced with this internal threat, Tehran sees value in raising the stakes on the nuclear front.

Yesterday, Tehran said that scientists at its Natanz nuclear enrichment plant had begun, in the presence of inspectors from the IAEA, upgrading stocks of uranium from a current level of purity of 3.5 per cent to 20 per cent. The Government insists the higher-grade uranium that yesterday's step purportedly brings closer is for use by oncologists in the treatment of cancer, which is not illegal under UN rules.

But the United States, Israel and other Western Governments say the move is an alarming provocation because Iran does not have the technology to turn enriched uranium into fuel rods for medical uses. Once it reaches 20 per cent purity however, it could easily continue enriching it to the 90 per cent required for a nuclear bomb.

Either way, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has walked away from a proposed uranium export deal which would have given Iran a supply of French-made fuel rods for its medical research reactor in return for ceding two-thirds of its existing stockpile of low-enriched uranium.

US President Barack Obama responded to Iran's move yesterday by saying he wanted a new push on sanctions within weeks. Obama said it was now clear to him that Iran was pursuing a path to "nuclear weaponisation". Russia also indicated it might support tougher UN sanctions.

Experts doubt whether Iran is even equipped to enrich to 20 per cent on its own. But the prospect of a political crisis with the West is something Ahmadinejad may gamble on so that he can profit domestically, according to Western diplomats.

The Iranian regime has been suffering a legitimacy crisis since the June elections. Having sidelined political moderates, the hardliners that support Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader have less interest than ever in a rapprochement with the West, which could erode the international isolation that entrenches their grip on power.

Tackling Iran on the nuclear issue is fraught with difficulty for Western Governments because even those Iranians who detest Ahmadinejad's policies defend the right to a nuclear programme.

Any move to apply the kind of harsh squeeze that would satisfy Iran's harshest critics may lead ordinary Iranians to blame the West, rather than the embattled regime.

New sanctions would target Iran's central bank, blacklist shipping companies and expand lists of Iranians facing travel bans and asset freezes. But the Revolutionary Guard Corps, which controls much of the economy and would be the key to any nuclear weapons programme, has found ways around three rounds of sanctions, Western intelligence sources say. They have established front companies and banks in Belarus, Turkey and Syria.Independent