Taiwan braces itself as Russia's invasion sets off alarm bells over China

People in Taiwan and supporters hold posters to protest against the invasion of Russia in solidarity with the Ukrainian people in front of the Representative Office of the Moscow. Photo / AP

Among the young couples taking selfies and parents playing with toddlers on the quayside of Taiwan's northern Keelung port, two elderly women are talking about the last time they handled guns.

"We received training in high school. The instructor stood behind us and did all the work. We barely hit the targets," said Chiu Chun Feng, 63.

But if China invaded, she said, she would consider picking up arms again. Her friend Xu Yu-ying, 66, motioned in the air with her right hand to show how she would fire a gun at an invading Chinese army.

"I would be willing to fight for my country, because we need to be able to hold on ourselves to buy time so that we can wait for more help," she said. "We're so used to our freedom that we cannot stand communism."

"I saw on TV an old man who was around 80 years old in Ukraine who was standing up and fighting, so I think we should fight too."

Taiwan, a democratic island of 23.5 million, has for years faced aggressive overtures from the Chinese Communist Party, which has threatened to absorb it by force despite never having ruled there.

Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, left, is greeted by Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen during a meeting at the Presidential Office. Photo / Taiwan Presidential Office

As the world's 21st largest economy, a dominant manufacturer of semiconductor chips and a strategic player in Washington's Indo-Pacific strategy, the country is a key regional player and could not be invaded without serious repercussions.

So, the Taiwanese have learned to live with China's threats, perhaps even ignore them.

But the full-blown invasion of Ukraine - something most thought was impossible right up until the moment it happened - has forced the citizens of Taiwan to confront the unthinkable: could the worst-case scenario suddenly erupt on their shores, too?

The Maritime Plaza promenade where Ms Chiu and Ms Xu were chatting is on the rim of Keelung's harbour, which faces out towards the Taiwan Strait.

In the distance, tucked behind a docked cruise ship, grey warships from a nearby naval base are a jarring reminder of the parallels being drawn between the situations in Eastern Europe and eastern Asia.

A pro-China protester shouts slogans outside of the hotel where former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will deliver a speech in Taipei, Taiwan. Photo / AP

"The Ukraine crisis has raised our awareness about whether China might invade us," said Ms Chen, 33, a young aunt babysitting her niece Lulu. "For a lot of Taiwanese, the war was an idea that was very far from us, but ever since the start of war between Ukraine and Russia, we feel it's closer."

Keelung's Weihai naval base, as the launchpad for minelaying ships and "aircraft killer" corvettes into the roughly 160m wide Taiwan Strait that separates the island from China, would be a prime target in a conflict.

As Lulu, 14 months, shot off gleefully in a fast crawl across the dark wooden slats of the Keelung boardwalk, Ms Chen, who declined to give her full name, admitted she had no idea what to do if conflict broke out.

"We have never received this kind of training," she said. "People would be willing to train. What happened in Ukraine inspired us to learn what to do during wartime."

China's defense budget, largely oriented toward possible military action in Taiwan, is another marquee item that is scrutinized closely by Congress watchers. Photo / AP

Taiwan already has an annual air raid drill. However in recent days, local news coverage has highlighted the presence of over 100,000 designated bomb shelters – available on Google Maps and including garages and metro stations - where citizens could take cover from incoming missiles.

Tsai Ing-wen, the Taiwanese president, has instructed a Ukraine crisis group at her National Security Council to raise military surveillance. The government has shown support for Kyiv by lighting up major buildings in the blue and yellow colours of its flag, as well as donating 27 tonnes of medical supplies.

The Ukrainian people's "heroic determination" was strengthening its own "security preparedness", said Kolas Yotaka, Taiwan's presidential office spokesman, who added: "The clear message sent by the Ukrainian people to Taiwan is that only we can defend our country. All we can do is to stand up for our self-determination."

But Taipei has also sought to reassure the public here that the two countries' situations are far from identical.

China has also bristled at the comparisons. "Taiwan, of course, is not Ukraine," Hua Chunying, a foreign ministry spokesman, said last week following Russia's invasion.

Her follow-up statement was less comforting, however. "Taiwan has always been an inalienable part of China's territory," she said. "This is an irrefutable historical and legal fact."

Yet fears that China might seize the crisis as an opportune moment to launch its own land grab have so far not transpired. Neither has the full-throated support for Moscow's actions that most expected.

Instead, Beijing has hedged its bets, abstaining from United Nations votes condemning the invasion, but also saying it was "concerned" about Ukrainian civilian casualties and offering to play a mediating role.

In a Tuesday telephone call with his Ukrainian counterpart, Wang Yi, China's foreign minister, stressed "respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries," said the foreign ministry.

But that has not stopped the online trolls.

The state-run Global Times mocked Taiwan's ruling party as "pathetic and desperate" for believing the US would stand with them as well if war breaks out.

On social media, aggressive nationalists cultivated by the Chinese government and known as "little pinks" have called for Xi to follow in Vladimir Putin's footsteps.

"China should take this chance to solve the Taiwan problem as soon as possible," wrote a user on Weibo, China's version of Twitter.

"It's the best chance to take Taiwan back now," wrote another.

The events in Ukraine have also prompted shifts in Taiwan's regional allies.

Last week, Shinzo Abe, Japan's former prime minister, urged the US to drop its policy of "strategic ambiguity", where it stops short of confirming whether it would intervene if China invaded. "By showing it may intervene, it keeps China in check," he said.

Washington has not signalled a change in policy, but this week dispatched a high-profile delegation of former defence officials - including Admiral Mike Mullen, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff - to Taipei as an explicit show of support.

"Maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is not just a US interest, but also a global one," he told Taiwan's president on Wednesday.

"Russia's invasion reminds us that Taiwan must work with the US and other partners to defend our shared values and uphold peace."

Most analysts do not truly believe an invasion is imminent.

"I think they understand that that would be a horrible idea because if anything it increases US resolve to do something," said Oriana Skylar Mastro, from the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. "When they move on Taiwan is shaped by domestic political factors and whether it is good timing for Xi Jinping and his career."

But when exactly that might be remains an open question. Taiwanese and US defence chiefs have openly warned that China will be capable of doing so in just three years' time.

Back on the Maritime Plaza promenade, Wo Shan-gen, 96, has lived through many wars and believes "Taiwan is safe, but not very safe".

He still feels a strong connection to China, where he was born and left for Taiwan at 16, and he hopes for peace. "I feel like Xi Jinping won't invade, because he has said that Chinese people don't attack Chinese people," he said.