Syria’s economy may take until 2080 to recover, says UN agency

The UN study estimated nine out of 10 Syrians now live in poverty, Photo / AFP

Syria would need more than 50 years to get back to its economic level before its devastating civil war at present growth rates, the United Nations said on Thursday.

“Fourteen years of conflict in Syria have undone nearly four decades of economic, social and human capital progress,” the UN Development Programme (UNDP) said.

“At current growth rates, Syria’s economy will not regain its pre-conflict GDP level before 2080,” it said, calling for massive investment in economic recovery after the fall of President Bashar al-Assad in December.

Much of Syria’s infrastructure was destroyed and the country faced heavy sanctions over Assad’s crackdown on opposition after civil war erupted in 2011.

The UN study – The Impact of the Conflict in Syria – estimated nine out of 10 Syrians now live in poverty, a quarter are jobless and the country’s gross domestic product “has shrunk to less than half of its value” in 2011.

It estimated annual economic growth over the past seven years at 1.3% and said “an ambitious tenfold rise” would be needed over 15 years to bring the economy to the point it would have been at if there had been no war.

A more “realistic” 5% annual growth would be needed over 15 years to get back to the size of the economy in 2010, it said.

“Beyond immediate humanitarian aid, Syria’s recovery requires long-term investment in development to build economic and social stability for its people,” UNDP chief Achim Steiner said.

“Restoring productivity for jobs and poverty relief, revitalising agriculture for food security, and rebuilding infrastructure for essential services such as healthcare, education and energy are key to a self-sustaining future, prosperity, and peace,” he said.

A strategy that included “governance reform”, “economic stabilisation” and “infrastructure rebuilding” was needed for Syria to “regain control over its future, reduce reliance on external aid and pave the way for a resilient and prosperous future,” UNDP regional chief for Arab states Abdallah Al Dardari said.

- Agence France-Presse